As many as $32.5 billion worth of shares, either via IPO or secondary share sales, will see their lock-ins end in July, the most for any month through the rest of the year, according to Bloomberg data.
In the upcoming year, Goldman Sachs estimates that IPO-linked lock-ins could total $274 billion in Hong Kong, a record for any 12-month period. Shares held by large investors and existing shareholders of an IPO are generally not available for public trading, typically for a 6-12-month period after listing.
The potential supply that will come into the market adds further pressure to an already underperforming stock market that has lagged Asian peers who have led the global AI rally.
Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng index is down 3% so far in 2026, compared to a 100% surge seen in South Korea’s KOSPI and a 57% advance for Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX.
Goldman Sachs noted that historical precedents suggest some downward price pressure following the lock-in expiration. The brokerage noted that such stocks usually see a median drop of 4% in the next three months and 7% over the next six months after they become eligible to be traded.
Companies such as AI model developer MiniMax Group, and Knowledge Atlas Technology JSC, also called Zhipu, Insilico Medicine Cayman TopCo., and chip design firm Shanghai Biran Technology Co. are among the stocks that will see substantial number of shares free up for trade once their lock-ins end next month.
“We see this as an opportunity, as higher free float should improve liquidity and enable better price discovery in quality Hong Kong listings coming out of lock ups,” said Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments.
(With Inputs From Agencies.)
