Japan’s 20-year bond demand weakens amid worries over inflation and policies

Japan’s 20-year bond demand weakens amid worries over inflation and policies


Japan’s 20-year government bond demand slumped as the auction for the same resulted in the weakest demand since May 2025. This development comes as concerns about inflation and fiscal policy affect investor appetite.

In contrast to 4.01 at the last auction and a 12-month average of 3.55, the bid-to-cover ratio at the sale was 2.97.

Concerns over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal programme and rumours that the Bank of Japan is not raising rates quickly enough to control inflation have put pressure on the country’s government debt. This week, the premier revealed a long-term expenditure plan of $2.3 trillion.

In May, the 20-year yield reached its highest point since 1996, but it has since somewhat decreased as oil prices return to levels seen before the Iran War.
Since the central bank raised the benchmark rate to the highest level since 1995 at its policy meeting last week, the auction is the first sale of Japanese super-long debt. A summary of the meeting’s viewpoints indicated the necessity for additional rate rises, despite a Deputy Governor’s remarks following the decision suggesting that policymakers won’t rush into future hikes.

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The BOJ may encounter difficulties in raising rates due to Takaichi’s inclination towards monetary easing. Investors are waiting for information regarding a possible food sales tax reduction.

The currency is getting close to its lowest point in forty years, which many market players believe may present the next chance for government intervention.

In contrast to the beginning of the fiscal year, Japan’s insurers sold domestic super-long government bonds in May. Additionally, international fund managers are beginning to cut back on their holdings of long-dated Japanese government bonds.

 



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