Rupee climbs 37 paise despite strong dollar pressure. Here’s why

Rupee climbs 37 paise despite strong dollar pressure. Here’s why


The Indian rupee opened stronger at 94.30 against the US dollar on Thursday (June 25), gaining 37 paise from Wednesday’s (June 26’s) close of 94.67/$, supported by a sharp fall in global crude oil prices and likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The currency rebounded after nearing the psychologically important 95/$ mark in the previous session. Traders said the RBI likely stepped into the market to curb volatility, while comments from RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also pulled down forward premium levels, helping sentiment.

A steep decline in oil prices further boosted the rupee.

Brent crude dropped more than 4% overnight and slipped another 2% in Asian trading to around $72.28 per barrel. The fall came after tankers resumed movement through the Strait of Hormuz following an initial agreement aimed at ending the US-Israel conflict with Iran.

Brent prices have now fallen below levels seen before the conflict escalated on February 28.

The benchmark is down more than 10% this week and over 21% for the month, easing pressure on oil-importing economies such as India.

“Lower oil prices and the impact of RBI intervention are driving a decent uptick in the rupee at the open,” a currency trader at a bank said.

The rupee’s gains came despite continued weakness across Asian currencies. Regional peers remained under pressure from strong safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer.

The dollar index hovered near 101.50, close to multi-month highs, as investors bet that resilient US economic growth and sticky inflation may push the Fed toward tighter monetary policy.

Market participants said Wednesday’s (June 24’s) recovery in the rupee, combined with easing crude prices, may help the local currency stabilise in the near term even as global dollar strength persists.

ING said in a note that recent price action suggests markets are now pricing in a swift normalisation of shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing fears of supply disruptions in the global oil market.

-With Reuters inputs



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