The market rose nearly 0.9 per cent during the week ended July 3, buoyed by easing concerns over the sustainability of the US-Iran ceasefire and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Investor sentiment was further supported by softer US labour market data, which lowered expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Alongside the strengthening monsoon across India, domestic market sentiment was further lifted by optimism surrounding the India-Japan summit, with investors expecting meaningful progress in areas such as trade, defence, semiconductors, AI collaboration, and a proposed rupee-yen settlement framework.
FOMC Minutes: On the global front, investors will closely watch the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on July 8. Apart from the weekly jobless claims data and the S&P Global Services PMI, the economic calendar remains relatively light. Market participants will look for clues on the extent of differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the future policy path, as reflected in the June dot plot. Meanwhile, recent softer US labour market data has reduced expectations of a Fed interest rate hike.
Global Economic Data: Besides the FOMC meeting minutes, investors will closely monitor a series of key global economic indicators in the coming week, including Europe’s monthly retail sales and producer price index (PPI) data, along with China’s inflation, PPI, and vehicle sales figures.
Crude Oil Prices: Crude oil prices will remain in focus as fluctuations have a significant impact on oil-importing countries such as India. Brent crude ended the week around $71.80 per barrel, its lowest closing level since February, while WTI settled near $69 per barrel, supported by improving tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors will also track geopolitical developments, including shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and the status of US-Iran negotiations, as these could influence global oil prices in the coming weeks.
Domestic Economic Data: On the domestic front, investors will track bank loan and deposit growth data for the week ended June 26, along with India’s foreign exchange reserves for the fortnight ended July 3, scheduled to be released during the week.
FII Activity: Foreign institutional investor (FII) flows will remain a key market trigger. While FIIs have remained net sellers in recent weeks, analysts expect buying interest to improve, supported by softer crude oil prices, easing global trade concerns, and expectations of stronger corporate earnings in the second half of FY27. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have continued to offset foreign outflows with sustained buying, providing support to the equity markets.
F&O Cues and India VIX: Options data indicates 24,400-24,500 as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty, with 24,000–23,900 serving as crucial support. Meanwhile, India VIX declined to 11.79, its lowest closing level since January, signalling improving market sentiment and increased confidence among bulls.
Corporate Action: Dividends, stock splits and bonus issue will also shape the mood of the stock in the week ahead.
(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)
