The Nifty IT index fell nearly 30% between January and June, making it one of its weakest first-half performances in decades, even as the broader Nifty gained around 8%. As Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) prepares to kick off the earnings season later this week, brokerages agree on one thing — expectations have rarely been this low.
Sharp Valuation Reset
The biggest shift this year has not been earnings, but valuations.
According to CLSA, consensus forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples for India’s largest IT companies have fallen by around 40% since the start of 2026.
| Company | Jan P/E | Current P/E | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Infosys | 23.3x | 13.4x | -42.3% |
| TCS | 22.4x | 13.5x | -39.5% |
| HCLTech | 25.5x | 15.2x | -40.1% |
| Wipro | 21.0x | 12.9x | -38.8% |
| LTIMindtree | 33.2x | 17.7x | -46.8% |
| Persistent Systems | 53.8x | 29.3x | -45.7% |
Several brokerages, including CLSA, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Nomura, HSBC, Kotak Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal, have reduced their target valuation multiples as they align themselves to a prolonged period of low-single-digit growth.
Goldman Sachs now expects FY27 to become the fourth consecutive year of subdued growth, having cut its aggregate organic revenue growth forecast to 2.4% from 3.2% earlier.
Despite the gloomy outlook, CLSA believes the valuation reset has gone far enough for several stocks to begin looking attractive. In a note titled “India IT: Stocks Now Below Intrinsic Value,” the brokerage said TCS and Infosys are now pricing in just 2% US dollar revenue CAGR in perpetuity, roughly half the historical 4.1% CAGR in global IT services spending between 2006 and 2025.
CLSA has maintained Outperform ratings on TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Tech Mahindra and LTIMindtree, while continuing to favour mid-tier names such as Persistent Systems and Coforge.
CLSA’s Latest Price Targets
| Company | Rating | Target Price |
|---|---|---|
| Persistent Systems | High Conviction Outperform | ₹5,659 |
| Coforge | High Conviction Outperform | ₹2,045 |
| Tech Mahindra | Outperform | ₹1,560 |
| HCLTech | Outperform | ₹1,202 |
| TCS | Outperform | ₹2,149 |
| Infosys | Outperform | ₹1,093 |
| LTIMindtree | Outperform | ₹4,468 |
| Wipro | Hold | ₹157 |
| Mphasis | Hold | ₹2,162 |
Another muted quarter ahead?
Despite the June quarter typically being seasonally strong, earnings expectations remain subdued.
According to the CNBC-TV18 poll, constant currency revenue growth is expected at just 0.15% for TCS, 1.7% for Infosys, -1% for HCLTech and -1.4% for Wipro. Even Infosys’ expected growth is partly acquisition-led, with organic growth estimated at only 0.7-0.8%.
Brokerages attribute the slowdown to delayed discretionary spending, slower conversion of large deals and continued geopolitical uncertainty following the conflict in the Middle East. Accenture recently disclosed a $100 million revenue impact from the disruption, highlighting the broader pressure on client spending.
Artificial intelligence has emerged as another structural headwind. CLSA estimates AI is causing 2-4% annual pricing deflation, with the revenue generated from new AI projects yet to offset the pressure on traditional services.
Adding to the challenge, ICICI Securities noted that while India’s IT services exports grew 12% in FY26, the top five listed IT companies recorded only 3.6% dollar revenue growth, suggesting a growing share of technology spending is shifting towards Global Capability Centres (GCCs) and specialised technology firms.
Guidance and margins in focus
The weak start to FY27 has raised questions over management guidance.
Several brokerages believe Infosys could trim the upper end of its 1.5-3.5% revenue guidance range for organic growth, although acquisitions may support its overall outlook. HCLTech is widely expected to maintain its existing guidance.
Margins, however, should remain relatively resilient. The rupee depreciated 2.6% quarter-on-quarter and 9.7% year-on-year, providing a natural hedge against costs. While wage hikes are expected to weigh on TCS and Wipro, HCLTech could benefit from the absence of restructuring expenses that affected the previous quarter.
What investors will watch?
For investors, this earnings season will be about more than quarterly numbers. Management commentary on AI monetisation, pricing, discretionary spending and large deal pipelines will be closely watched for signs that growth is beginning to recover.
Kotak Institutional Equities believes current valuations are beginning to limit downside. But a sustained re-rating, it says, will require either a meaningful acceleration in revenue growth or evidence that IT companies can capture greater value from AI—neither of which is visible just yet.
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