For its bull case, Motilal Oswal has a price target of ₹652 by financial year 2028, which is implying a potential upside of 45% from the stock’s last closing level.
The brokerage said Saatvik Green is well placed to benefit from the rapid growth in India’s solar manufacturing industry, supported by its ongoing capacity expansion and backward integration plans.
As of the end of FY26, the company had 4.8 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity. It is adding another 4 GW of module capacity while also entering solar cell manufacturing.
Motilal Oswal expects the company’s module manufacturing capacity to increase to 8.8 GW by FY27, while cell manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 2.4 GW in FY27 and 6 GW in FY28.
The company also plans to enter the ingot and wafer segment by FY29 with a proposed capacity of 6 GW, which would further strengthen its backward integration strategy.
The brokerage expects strong earnings growth over the next two years. It projects revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit after tax (APAT) to grow at a compound annual rate of 38%, 55% and 44%, respectively, between FY26 and FY28.
The growth is expected to be driven by higher module sales, which are estimated to increase from 3.1 GW in FY26 to 3.8 GW in FY27 and 4.9 GW in FY28.
A larger share of Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) modules, expected to account for around 56% of sales by FY28, is also likely to improve realisations.
Motilal Oswal said that Saatvik Green has maintained an industry-leading capacity utilisation factor (CUF) of 84% in both FY25 and FY26, reflecting its ability to quickly ramp up new manufacturing facilities.
On valuation, the brokerage said the stock trades at 6.9 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA, compared with 9.2 times for Waaree Energies and 10.4 times for Premier Energies.
While Motilal Oswal values Saatvik Green at a lower 8x FY28 EV/EBITDA multiple due to its smaller scale, lack of an operating track record in solar cell manufacturing and higher dependence on module manufacturing, it believes the current valuation offers an attractive investment opportunity.
