Nifty Outlook for July 21: Trend remains positive till 24,000 holds; oil prices remain key

Nifty Outlook for July 21: Trend remains positive till 24,000 holds; oil prices remain key


After Friday’s sharp rally, the Nifty 50 snapped its winning streak on Monday, falling 95 points to close at 24,238 as weakness in private banking stocks, rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark index opened 144 points lower, tracking weak global cues after Gift Nifty indicated a subdued start.

Elevated crude oil prices, mixed earnings from private banks over the weekend and continued uncertainty in the Middle East kept investors cautious.

After remaining under pressure through most of the first half, the index recovered more than 100 points from the day’s low in the second half, helping trim intraday losses.

Among Nifty stocks, Trent, Power Grid and Nestlé India were the top gainers, while Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and Maruti Suzuki emerged as the biggest losers.

Sectoral performance remained mixed. PSU banks, pharma and media led the gains, while private banks, financial services and auto were the top laggards.

The broader market outperformed the benchmark, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.6% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 0.16%.

Markets are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as investors assess developments in West Asia, elevated Brent crude prices above $88 per barrel, persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, rupee weakness and the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season. Stock-specific moves are expected to dominate trading.

The primary market will also remain in focus this week, with SBI Funds Management and Alpine Texworld scheduled to list on July 21. Companies due to report June quarter earnings on Tuesday include Bajaj Auto, Cyient DLM, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, TVS Motor Company and Indian Hotels Company.

What analysts say

Price action remained within Friday’s trading range, indicating a choppy and non-directional market for now, said Nandish Shah, Head of Derivatives & Technical Research at HDFC Securities.

According to Shah, the short-term trend remains positive as the Nifty continues to trade above its 20-, 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). He sees immediate resistance near 24,530, while 24,000 remains the key support level.

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives at Angel One, said the 24,150-24,000 zone, where the 20-, 50- and 100-day DEMAs converge, is likely to provide strong support.

On the upside, the 24,350-24,500 zone remains the next resistance band, with a decisive breakout needed for stronger momentum.

Meanwhile, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, expects immediate resistance in the 24,370-24,400 range. Shah said that a sustained move above this zone could push the Nifty towards 24,550 and then 24,700, while immediate support is placed at 24,130-24,100.



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