The domestic benchmark indices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase as trading resumes for Friday, August 14, with technical analysts pointing to a sideways-to-cautious outlook amid the absence of a decisive breakout.
The analysts noted that while the Nifty 50 continues to hold above crucial support levels, they believe the index needs to cross the 24,700–24,800 zone to confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend.
Sensex, Nifty at close on Thursday
Benchmark indices ended mixed on Thursday, with the Sensex rising nearly 114 points and the Nifty sliding over 40 points, as elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty made investors cautious.
The 50-share NSE Nifty was marginally down 40.10 points, or 0.16 per cent, to end at 24,395.85, registering its third day of decline.
According to Sachin Gupta, VP – Research, Technical Research, at Choice Broking Private Limited, Sensex, from a technical perspective, traded within a defined range and formed a long red candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart, indicating buying interest emerging from lower levels.
“The index once again found support near its 20-Day EMA, highlighting the importance of this moving average as an immediate technical cushion. The RSI stands at 53.93, remaining above the neutral 50 mark and indicating balanced-to-positive momentum, while the PCR at 1.00 reflects a neutral derivatives setup,” he said.
Gupta pointed out that the broader outlook remains sideways with a buy-on-dips bias, as the index continues to hold near its key short-term moving-average support.
“Sustaining the 77,400–77,600 zone will be crucial for maintaining the current structure, while a decisive move above 78,300–78,500 could trigger fresh buying momentum. Until a clear breakout or breakdown emerges, traders may continue to adopt a cautious buy-on-dips strategy while monitoring the 20-Day EMA and key range boundaries,” he stated.
“The BSE Sensex ended Thursday’s session at 78,079.96, gaining 113.61 points (+0.15%). The index opened at 78,111.91 and remained range-bound, moving between an intraday high of 78,119.39 and a low of 77,665.89. The benchmark recovered from lower levels indicating buying interest at declines despite the lack of strong directional momentum,” Gupta said.
Price action remained largely range-bound, with the Sensex finding buying support near the lower levels and recovering during the session, Gupta noted.
The immediate support zone is placed at 77,400–77,600, while resistance is seen at 78,300–78,500. “The broader trading range stands at 77,400–78,500, with the near-term bias remaining sideways with a buy-on-dips approach,” Gupta said, adding that a sustained hold above the support zone could keep the index stable, while a decisive breakout above resistance may strengthen the upside momentum.
On the downside, Bajaj Broking Research said 24,200–24,300 remains the immediate support zone, supported by the previous gap area and the 50-day EMA while key short-term support is placed at 24,000 levels.
The brokerage said the index has formed a small bearish candle which remained enclosed inside previous session price range signalling consolidation with a corrective bias around the 20 days EMA. “Nifty in the last three sessions has similar open and high highlighting profit booking at higher levels. Index need to break the sequence and start forming higher high and higher low in the daily chart to signal resumption of the up move,” it stated.
“Index in the last 8 sessions is seen consolidating in a narrow range retracing just 38.2% of its previous 7 sessions sharp up move from 23,606 to 24,774. A shallow retracement of its previous up move highlights a higher base formation. We believe the current breather should be used to accumulate quality stocks,” it said.
The brokerage stated a decisive breakout above 24,700-24,800 levels would confirm the resumption of the uptrend, opening the way towards 25,200 in the coming weeks.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said, Nifty is now placed above the crucial support of 24300 levels, but the market has failed to sustain the upside so far.
“The underlying trend of Nifty remains choppy with weak bias. As long as Nifty sustains above 24200-24300 levels there is a possibility of bounce back from the lower levels. Immediate resistance is placed at 24500 levels,” Shetti said.
He further stated the weakness amidst consolidation movement continued in the market on Thursday and Nifty closed the day lower by 40 points. “A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. The long lower shadows of the last two sessions indicate uptick in Nifty towards the closing session of CAS,” he added.
