Stock Market Prediction Today, August 18: Indian equity benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, are expected to remain in a consolidation phase with a mild corrective bias, with technical indicators pointing to a cautious near-term outlook. On Monday, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 281.09 points, or 0.36 per cent, to settle at 77,728.16 while the Nifty50 declined 78.35 points, or 0.32 per cent, to end at 24,287.65, taking the losses to the fifth day.
Sensex, Nifty top gainers and losers on Monday
Stock Market Prediction Today, August 18
Analysts expect the benchmark indices to remain range-bound unless they break key support or resistance levels decisively. The Nifty is currently showing signs of short-term weakness after slipping below crucial moving averages, while the Sensex continues to trade within a broader 77,000-78,300 range.
Mehra said, “The index is now trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, placed at 24,330 and 24,190 respectively, drawn from the recent swing low to the swing high.”
On the hourly chart, he said the price has slipped below the middle Bollinger Band, extending the pullback. “The RSI remains at the 50 mark, reflecting a neutral stance. The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the fast line slipping below the signal line, highlighting the near-term weakness. India VIX settled at 11.32,” the analyst added.
According to Mehra, the immediate support is placed at 24,190, followed by 24,050 while 24,500 remains the key resistance on the upside. “A decisive close above this level would be required to revive the recovery attempt,” he concluded.
According to Bajaj Broking Research the Nifty has formed a small bear candle with a small lower shadow which maintained lower high and lower low highlighting corrective bias.
“Nifty is forming lower high and lower low in the last 7 sessions, index need to break the sequence and start forming higher high and higher low in the daily chart to signal resumption of the up move,” the brokerage stated.
Going ahead a move above Monday’s high of 24,360 will signal pullback towards last week high of 24,620 in the coming sessions. Overall, the index is expected to extend the recent consolidation and trade in the broad range of 24,200-24,700, it said.
“Index in the last 10 sessions is seen consolidating in a narrow range retracing just 38.2 per cent of its previous 7 sessions sharp up move from 23,606 to 24,774. A shallow retracement of its previous up move highlights a higher base formation. We believe the current breather should be used to accumulate quality stocks,” it added.
The brokerage further said index has immediate support at 24,200 levels being the confluence of 100 and 50-day EMA. “While key short-term support is placed at 24,000-23,800 being trendline support joining last 4 months lows and 61.8% retracement of previous up move 23,606 to 24,774,” the brokerage further said.
For the Sensex, Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking, said Sensex remained volatile but range-bound during Monday’s session.
From a technical perspective, the Sensex formed a bearish daily candle, but the price action showed resilience after the index declined following the market opening, he noted.
According to Gupta, the benchmark found support near the 77,500 level and staged a recovery from the lower levels, while the 100-Day EMA support remained intact near the bottom of the session.
“The recovery from the intraday low and support from the key moving average indicate underlying buying interest, despite the negative daily close. A sustained hold above the 100-Day EMA would be important for maintaining the broader technical structure,” the analyst added.
Price action remained range-bound yet volatile, with the Sensex finding support around the 77,500 zone after the initial decline and subsequently recovering from lower levels.
According to Gupta, the immediate support zone is placed at 77,000–77,400, while resistance is seen at 78 ,000–78,300. The broader trading range stands at 77,000–78,300, with the near-term bias remaining sideways.
“Sustaining the lower support zone will be important to prevent further weakness, while a decisive move above resistance could improve the short-term setup,” Gupta concluded.
