SpaceX stock is currently around $136 per share. This is only about $1 higher than the company’s IPO price of $135. An investor buying eight SpaceX shares today would pay about $1,088 at the current price.
The Motley Fool said that an investor who bought eight shares at the $135 IPO price would be only about $8 richer today, despite SpaceX shares moving sharply after the IPO. SpaceX shares have already seen big swings. The stock climbed above $225 per share before falling below $105 per share. This shows that SpaceX stock could be very volatile, meaning its price could move up or down sharply.
SpaceX valuation is a big question
Analysts do not agree on how much SpaceX is actually worth today. Markus Leistner of Germany’s DZ Bank recently started coverage of SpaceX and took a cautious view of the company, according to The Motley Fool. Leistner believes SpaceX has a strong market opportunity, but he is worried about the company’s very high valuation. He questioned SpaceX’s estimate that its total market opportunity could be worth more than $28 trillion.
Leistner believes that estimate is too optimistic and sees a major risk in the current valuation. DZ Bank’s valuation is $100 per SpaceX share, which is below the current price of about $136. At $100 per share, eight SpaceX shares would be worth $800 instead of $1,088. The lower valuation reflects concerns that SpaceX may not be able to turn its huge future market opportunities into enough business to justify its very large spending.
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What happens if SpaceX grows much faster?
There is also a much more optimistic view of SpaceX’s future. According to Barron’s, the bull case assumes SpaceX could roughly double its sales every year. Under this scenario, SpaceX’s revenue could rise from about $44 billion in 2026 to more than $760 billion by 2030, Barron’s reported.
Such rapid growth would require SpaceX to spend an enormous amount of money. The bull case estimates that SpaceX could need about $800 billion in capital spending between now and 2030. To fund this huge spending, SpaceX may need to take on hundreds of billions of dollars in debt. The company could also issue more shares to raise money. Issuing more shares could dilute existing shareholders, meaning current investors could own a smaller percentage of the company.
Oppenheimer sees a higher price
Oppenheimer analysts have placed a $250-per-share valuation on SpaceX, according to the Motley Fool. Oppenheimer’s view is based partly on SpaceX’s vertically integrated AI technology stack. The analysts also believe SpaceX could benefit from making more acquisitions, especially in areas connected to AI.
If SpaceX reaches $250 per share, an investor holding eight shares would have an investment worth $2,000. The stock could go even higher if SpaceX delivers extremely strong growth and buys valuable AI companies. If investors become very confident about SpaceX’s future, they could push the stock above the $250 valuation. Under a more aggressive bull case, eight shares could be worth $2,500 or more by 2030.
There is also a very bearish case
Not every analyst expects SpaceX to justify its current price. The Motley Fool’s own analysis values SpaceX more like T-Mobile US, a large communications company. That analysis puts SpaceX’s overall value at around $200 billion to $250 billion. At that valuation, SpaceX could be worth roughly $38 per share.
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If SpaceX falls to $38 per share, eight shares would be worth only about $300. However, the Motley Fool says it does not expect the stock to fall that far. Even under this bearish valuation, SpaceX could still remain overvalued. Its minimum expected price is around $70 per share. At $70 per share, eight SpaceX shares would be worth about $560.
What could $1,088 be worth in 2030?
An investment of $1,088 in SpaceX today could be worth anywhere between about $560 and $2,500 by 2030, based on the different scenarios discussed by the Motley Fool. At the lower end of $560, the investor would lose about $528 from the original $1,088 investment. At the upper end of $2,500, the investor would make about $1,412 in gains. The huge difference between $560 and $2,500 shows how uncertain SpaceX’s future valuation is.
The main factors will be SpaceX’s revenue growth, capital spending, debt, possible share dilution, AI business, acquisitions and how investors value the company. For now, the biggest takeaway is that SpaceX could offer very high growth, but investors are also taking significant valuation risk. The wide range of possible 2030 values suggests that SpaceX stock could remain highly volatile over the next few years.
