Parthiv Jhonsa, Vice President at Anand Rathi Institutional Equities, believes the stock’s premium valuation is supported by rising production, higher copper prices and improving earnings visibility. Anand Rathi’s latest report also maintains the ₹715 target, citing strong operational visibility and favourable copper-market conditions.
Jhonsa expects the stock to remain under pressure in the near term following the OFS, but sees a potential recovery from around the ₹490-500 zone over the next few months. He said the recent stake sale does not change the company’s underlying fundamentals.
“OFS does not mean there is a change in fundamental, right? Your fundamentals, your underlying fundamentals continue to remain strong,” Jhonsa said.
The analyst also believes Hindustan Copper’s valuation is not as expensive as it appears. The company trades at around 16-18 times two-year forward EV/EBITDA, but Jhonsa pointed out that global copper miners also command elevated valuations because of the metal’s strong long-term outlook.
The bigger trigger for the stock, according to Jhonsa, is volume growth. He expects ore production to reach around 4.7 million tonne this year, while MIC volumes could rise to about 34,500 tonne. Over time, MIC volumes could reach around 79,000-80,000 tonne, excluding the Rakha mine.
“If you see from 2021-22, the multiples have also got rerated,” Jhonsa said, arguing that the higher valuation reflects the broader rerating of copper as an investment theme.
Earnings are expected to benefit from several factors. Jhonsa highlighted copper prices, rupee depreciation, higher volumes and low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) as the key drivers currently supporting Hindustan Copper.
He expects the company to generate around ₹2,500 crore of EBITDA in 2026-27 (FY27), rising to ₹2,850-2,900 crore in 2027-28 (FY28). Over the next five to six years, he sees the potential for EBITDA to reach around ₹4,800-5,000 crore.
Jhonsa also does not see the government’s remaining stake as a major overhang. Even after the full OFS, the government would retain more than 60% of Hindustan Copper, while the increased public float could improve liquidity in a stock that offers a direct play on copper.
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“I think this is actually a good event.” Jhonsa said the additional liquidity could help more investors participate in Hindustan Copper’s copper-growth story.
