Explained | The steely surprise in August

Explained | The steely surprise in August


Typically, the demand for steel moderates during the monsoon, and it did this year too. Yet, metal stocks are the top sectoral gainers in August, with the index rising over 8.74% so far. A sharp rebound in local steel prices and a persistent discount to Chinese imports lifted the pack.

The brokerage noted that supported by maintenance shutdowns that tightened availability and firm input costs.

While demand was largely need-based, healthy retail offtake and sustained infrastructure activity led to a 13.8% jump in rebar prices, compared to the July 2026 trough, according to Emkay Global, a Mumbai-based broking firm.

Similarly, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices stayed resilient, thanks to controlled supply and robust demand from the automobile industry. Passenger and commercial vehicle sales were up 21% year-on-year between January and July.

Despite the surge, Indian steel continued to trade 5.6% cheaper than that imported from China, a gap that kept demand for local mills intact, thanks to the 12% provisional safeguard duty imposed by the government in April.

The measure was expected to remain in effect for 200 days unless the government repealed or removed it earlier. The safeguard duty applied only to imports priced below the threshold of $675–$964 per tonne on a CIF basis, while steel products priced at or above the threshold were exempt from the duty.

Emkay retained a Buy rating on Tata Steel with a target price of ₹ 230, and a Buy on Jindal Steel with a target price of ₹1,400.

It kept an Add rating on JSW Steel with a target price of ₹1,400, and a Buy on SAIL with a target price of ₹190.

Top gainers on Nifty Metal this month

Welspun Corp was the top gainer on the Nifty Metal index this month, having risen 40%. APL Apollo Tubes followed with a gain of 19.41%, while Hindustan Zinc rose 16.18%.

Steel Authority of India climbed 15.46%, and National Aluminium Co Ltd advanced 13.92% in the month-to-date period, as of the close of trade on Wednesday, August 26.

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