Carlos Alcaraz was never the overwhelming favourite at the US Open 2026. For a man who was out injured for more than five months, and had no match practice until his first appearance right in New York, the expectation was always a stretch. Even history never favoured his chances — no men’s singles player has won the US Open after skipping both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati in the Open Era. Yet, the stunning straight-set win against Tommy Paul in the round of 16 had many believing it could be a possibility. And then, an evening later, Alcaraz crashed out.
In a battle of raw physicality, in front of an electric New York crowd on their feet, roaring and screaming even at 3:33 am when the five-set thriller ended, Ben Shelton went toe-to-toe against Alcaraz, bounced back after a set down, and then put a leash on a defiant late comeback from the Spaniard to script his biggest career win.
That win wasn’t on the prediction charts even as Shelton progressed to his second US Open quarterfinal. But it did reshuffle the entire conversation about who wins this US Open. The American has obviously launched himself right into that conversation — but would “favourite” be the tag right away after outlasting Alcaraz?
Is Shelton the favourite?
Let’s make the case for “yes,” first. With Alcaraz gone, Novak Djokovic out in the first round, and an injured Jannik Sinner never in the draw to begin with, Shelton has everyone’s attention right now, with a realistic shot at a maiden Grand Slam title. He’s playing the best tennis of his career at exactly the right time. That win over Alcaraz also showed he has the mental fortitude of a Grand Slam winner — holding his nerve in the crunch moments, especially in the final-set tiebreak, where he came back from 4-5 down to close it out with an ace.
His serve has been his biggest weapon this tournament, bailing him out in tight moments time and again. Add the physicality and athleticism he showed against Alcaraz, and even more impressively, a return game that’s improved enough to now trouble the very best in the sport.
It’s been a long time since an American has been part of the favourite conversation at any stage of a US Open. Andy Roddick remains the last man from the USA to win the title in New York, back in 2003. Shelton himself came close to ending that drought in 2023, but lost to Djokovic in straight sets in the semifinal.
The Tiafoe hurdle
One thing’s for sure — an American is guaranteed to reach the final this time, with Shelton taking on Frances Tiafoe in the semis. This will be their fifth career meeting, and Shelton owns the rivalry 3-1. The lefty won in four sets in the 2023 US Open quarterfinal, and Tiafoe returned the favour the following year in the round of 32. Shelton won their most recent meeting, at the Citi Open.
Whoever wins guarantees the first Black American man in a US Open final since Arthur Ashe in 1972 — a storyline bigger than the match itself, but one that won’t make Friday’s contest any less competitive.
Zverev says, “Hello!”
The German has almost gotten lost in the entire conversation surrounding this US Open. Early exits in Montreal and Cincinnati, followed by five-set battles in each of his first two matches in New York, dented his chances of being taken seriously — even with the draw wide open, especially in the top half.
But he won every match since in straight sets to return to the US Open semifinals for the first time since 2021. And this has been the year for the German: at least the semifinals at all four majors, his best-ever season at the majors, including a maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros and a run to the Wimbledon final. No other player has reached the final four at all four majors this year. He’s also a former US Open finalist — he led Dominic Thiem by two sets in the 2020 final before losing in five.
Zverev is chasing something bigger in New York too. A second career major would give him a real shot at finishing the season as world No. 1 for the first time in his career.
Up next for him is Karen Khachanov, playing his second US Open semifinal. Zverev has won four of his last five meetings against the Russian. He’s also never lost to Shelton in five meetings, three of them on hard courts, and owns a dominant 9-1 record against Tiafoe.
That head-to-head against Shelton is an asterisk on any talk of the American being the outright favourite. He’s earned the right to be in the conversation. Whether he’s actually the man to beat depends on getting through the one player in the draw who’s beaten him every single time.
