The revised target implies an upside of around 17% from BSE’s Friday closing price of ₹3,384.
JPMorgan said the decision to delink derivative settlement from the Clearing and Settlement (CAS) mechanism is a direct policy response to the market disruption that has weighed on BSE since CAS was introduced.
The brokerage expects the overhang from CAS to ease, which should support a gradual recovery in volumes for exchange stocks.
However, even while factoring in a recovery, JPMorgan has trimmed its near-term estimates to account for the decline in volumes and a measured recovery path. It cut its average daily premium turnover (ADPTV) estimates for FY27, FY28 and FY29 by 9.8%, 11.8% and 14.1%, respectively.
Analysts on BSE
Bloomberg data shows a consensus 12-month target price of ₹3,775.89 for BSE, implying an upside potential of around 12% from Friday’s close of ₹3,384. Of 19 analysts with coverage on the stock, 10 have a “Buy” rating, six say “Hold”, while three have a “Sell” recommendation on the stock.
SEBI proposes changes to CAS mechanism
SEBI has proposed changes to CAS, including delinking derivatives settlement from CAS — a move that could ease the overhang that has weighed on BSE since CAS was introduced.
The regulator has proposed two options for F&O settlement prices: a blended VWAP using trades from the final 30 minutes of continuous trading and the 10-minute CAS, or a VWAP based only on the final 30 minutes of continuous trading.
SEBI has also proposed changes to market timings, including a 3:30 p.m. end to continuous trading followed by a 10-minute CAS and a 3:45 p.m. close for derivatives. Public comments are invited until October 3.
BSE Q1 results
BSE reported a 9.6% sequential increase in consolidated net profit to ₹874 crore in the June quarter, from ₹797 crore in the March quarter, supported by resilient operating income and higher investment income. Revenue was largely flat at ₹1,566 crore, up 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, while total income rose 5% to ₹1,707 crore.Transaction charges, BSE’s largest revenue source, increased 1% sequentially to ₹1,328 crore, while other operating income rose 5%. Listing services income declined 15% to ₹101 crore, reflecting a softer primary market, while investment income more than doubled to ₹135 crore from ₹62 crore.
Consolidated Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) stood at ₹1,187 crore, with a net profit margin of 51%. Earnings per share came in at ₹21.22, and consolidated net worth stood at ₹7,547 crore.
Shares of BSE are trading on a flat line on Tuesday at ₹3,383. The stock is up 30% so far this year.
