HSBC cut its price target on Lupin by 10% to ₹2,500 from ₹2,770 earlier. The revised price target implies an upside potential of 18% from current levels.,
According to the brokerage, Lupin’s current valuation appears to be “overemphasising” the already known concentration risks, while at the same time, it is undermining the potential of the US lineup it has in store.
US business to stabilise
HSBC expects Lupin’s US sales to stabilise at around $1.2 billion annually during FY27-FY29, following the anticipated reset in its FY27 base.The brokerage expects new product launches in the US to support Lupin’s sales trajectory going forward.
Meanwhile, Lupin’s India business and other markets outside the US are expected to continue showing traction, providing support to overall growth, HSBC’s note said.
Strong start to FY27
In the first quarter of FY27, Lupin’s consolidated net profit rose 16.1% year-on-year to ₹1,415 crore, while revenue from operations increased 33.3% to ₹8,217 crore.
Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) rose 47.3% to ₹2,390 crore, pushing the EBITDA margin up to 29.1% from 26.3% in Q1 FY26.
The US remained Lupin’s largest market, with revenue rising to $366 million from $282 million in the year-ago quarter. India revenue increased 14% to ₹2,379.6 crore, while other developed markets grew 48.3% to ₹1,149.4 crore. Emerging-market revenue increased 51.7% to ₹989.7 crore.
Analyst consensus and stock reaction
As per Bloomberg data, 20 of 41 analysts covering Lupin have a “Buy” rating on the stock, while 12 have a “Hold” rating and nine have a “Sell” rating. The 12-month consensus target price stands at ₹2,477.59, implying an upside of around 17% from Monday’s close.The analyst price targets range from as low as ₹1,800 to as high as ₹2,899.
Shares of Lupin fell about 0.7% on Tuesday morning, but have now pared most of the losses and are trading at around ₹2,119.90, down 0.2%. The stock has declined nearly 8% over the last six months, but has gained around 6% over the last 12 months.
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