Gold, silver prices: What is driving volatility in bullion markets


Gold and silver prices edged higher in futures trade on Friday (September 25), amid changing expectations around US interest rates, a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the October gold contract rose ₹150, or 0.1%, to ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams, while December silver futures gained ₹368, or 0.16%, to ₹2.33 lakh per kg.

In the overseas market, gold futures were up 0.01% at $4,275.38 per ounce, while silver futures rose 0.02 percent to $63.80 per ounce.

Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at Lemonn, said that while both remained under pressure on a weekly basis from a stronger dollar, US Treasury yields above 5 percent and expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer.

According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, the global interest-rate outlook, a stronger dollar and higher US yields are key factors weighing on precious metals. Higher yields can reduce the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

For Indian buyers and investors, the rupee is another important variable.

Subburaj said a weaker rupee can cushion domestic gold prices when international bullion prices decline, while also increasing the import cost of precious metals.

Physical demand, meanwhile, remains steady but cautious.

Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, said buyers at current high price levels are becoming more selective and are waiting to see how prices move. He expects price swings to continue and said traders would need to manage inventory carefully and respond to actual physical demand.

Gold and silver are also being influenced by broader commodity-market developments.

Garg said crude oil was easing, with WTI around $93.80 a barrel and Brent near $105.85, as markets weighed the possibility of a US-Iran truce against continuing attacks and risks to West Asia energy infrastructure.

He said elevated crude prices and higher US yields remained important risks for inflation, the rupee and MCX commodities.

For investors considering gold and silver for long-term allocation, Subburaj said the current environment called for patience and that staggered buying could help manage short-term volatility rather than committing the entire amount at a single price level.

He also cautioned leveraged traders to keep position sizes controlled and define stop-losses before entering trades.

The next major cues for bullion prices are likely to come from US rate expectations, Treasury yields, movements in the dollar and geopolitical developments, according to Subburaj.

The volatility in precious metals is also playing out against changing consumer dynamics in the jewellery market. Aarav Bafna, Director, Akoirah by Augmont, said natural diamond prices reaching their lowest levels in nearly two decades reflected a broader recalibration in the diamond market, with lab-grown diamonds changing the supply dynamics and consumer expectations around size, quality and price.

Bafna, however, said the decline in natural diamond prices could not be attributed to lab-grown diamonds alone, with inventory cycles, rough-diamond supply and demand conditions in key markets also playing a role.

He added that elevated gold prices were putting pressure on overall jewellery ticket sizes, making value and budget allocation more important for consumers.

-With agencies inputs



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