An independent financial research provider on Wall Street called “New Constructs”, has called AI giant Anthropic’s upcoming initial public offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026”, adding that Wall Street is about to face “an unprecedented test of investor gullibility”.
Anthropic is seeking a $2 trillion valuation on the day it makes its debut on Wall Street. New Constructs has valued it at a mere $150 billion, 92% lower than Anthropic’s aspiration.
According to New Constructs, Anthropic will need to record double the trailing year profit of Nvidia, which is the most valuable company in the world, with a market capitalization of close to $6 trillion, to justify the valuation it desires. Over the last four quarters, Nvidia’s net profit has totaled nearly $190 billion, while Anthropic reported a net operating loss of over $8 billion in 2025, while overall losses soared to $42 billion, Reuters had reported last month, citing a leaked copy of the company’s prospectus.
“We don’t think Anthropic has a viable business,” New Constructs wrote in its note citing mounting operating losses of the company along with emerging competition from a slew of open-source models. “Since the arrival of open-source models, it has been clear hat the closed models would struggle to generate profits,” the note further said.
David Trainer, the founder and CEO of New Constructs has gained notoriety on Wall Street as one of the biggest IPO bears and he has been proven right in the past too.
Back in the day, New Constructs had called WeWork “the most ridiculous IPO of 2019.” Ahead of its IPO, WeWork was valued privately at $47 billion, but the company pulled back on its IPO just six weeks after the New Constructs report amid weak demand and criticism about its financials. WeWork ended up filing for bankruptcy in 2023.
“While Anthropic offers more to society than WeWork ever did, a $2 trillion valuation IPO represents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of the US capital markets,” New Constructs wrote, adding that the IPOs purpose is not to provide wealth for public market investors but rather liquidity for the company’s Wall Street backers.
New Constructs had also been bearish on the Allbirds IPO in 2021. The shoe company debuted on Wall Street at a $4.1 billion valuation but went on to sell its assets to the American Exchange Group earlier this year for just $39 million and pivoted to AI in the process. It called DoorDash the “most ridiculous IPO of 2020” but that has held up well so far, commanding a market capitalization of $83 billion versus its $60 million debut.
Trainer had acknowledged in an interview to CNBC in 2021 that New Constructs “doesn’t always get it right” but that fact should not bother him as he wants to continue to believe in what he thinks is right.
Anthropic’s warning that AI could prove to be a catastrophic risk to humanity is another reason why New Constructs wants investors to avoid the IPO.