Gold Price Outlook: Gold prices could rally 10-12 per cent in the near term, potentially reaching $4,700 per ounce by November 30, as easing bond yields and stabilising crude oil prices reduce downward pressure on the precious metal, Surendra Mehta, National Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), said on October 17 in an exclusive interview with ET Now Swadesh. Speaking in the interview, Surendra Mehta said the risk-reward ratio for gold appears favourable at current levels, with the potential downside estimated at 4-5 per cent and the upside at around 12-13 per cent. He attributed the recent pressure on gold prices largely to elevated bond yields and the strength of the US dollar. However, he highlighted that bond yields had eased after rising above 5.3 per cent, falling below 5.1 per cent in the morning on October 17. Crude oil prices were also showing signs of stabilisation at around $105 per barrel, he added. According to Mehta, these developments could support gold prices in the near term. He said the metal could move towards $4,700 per ounce, although a downside move towards $3,850 per ounce cannot be ruled out.
Gold Prices Outlook: What could drive the Rally?
Mehta said gold could witness a significant rally if bond yields and the dollar index ease further. The upcoming festive season in India could also support prices, he added. However, he cautioned that the outlook would depend on global developments, particularly the possibility of renewed geopolitical tensions. ‘If bond yields and the dollar index ease, and we do not see another escalation in the war situation, gold prices could see a significant rally,’ Mehta said.
Gold price forecast until November 30
Surendra Mehta said his bullish outlook was for the immediate term, with the possibility of a 10-12 per cent rise by November 30, rather than a forecast for the next calendar year. He also estimated that gold could deliver an upside of 12-13 per cent from current levels, against a potential downside of 4-5 per cent. The outlook comes as gold and silver prices have recorded gains for the second consecutive day, prompting investors to assess whether the recovery can sustain into the coming weeks.
Gold, silver may face a choppy week as West Asia tensions, oil surge weigh on sentiment: Analysts
Gold and silver are heading for another turbulent week, with escalating tensions in West Asia, crude oil prices hovering near USD 110 per barrel and rupee movements set to shape bullion sentiment, analysts said on October 18, according to a PTI report. Investors will initially track Chinese economic data, crucial for industrial metals and silver, followed by US housing data, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and PMI readings from major economies, including India, the UK and the US, they added.