Hello Espresso Lovers! We’re back after what has been a very gruelling week. In cricket, we have something known as the “Commentator’s Curse“, where a Commentator praises a batsman or bowler and the batsman gets out the very next ball or the bowler bowls a very poor ball immediately after the praise. Human life is no different. Last Sunday, we were happy about the fact that this is supposed to be a truncated week. But the newsflow made a four-day week seem like eight, with no end in sight!
Possibly the most iconic character Hindi Cinema ever created was Gabbar Singh, Vald Hari Singh. He gave us so many memorable lines (from the fireball pen of Salim-Javed, of course), that they possibly fit into every instance in our life. As the Gen Zs would say, it is Gabbar Singh’s world, and we just happen to live in it. We live in times where there is fear almost everywhere. The fear of a bear market, the fear of war, the fear of a recession, job losses – From “Zindagi ka Dusra naam Problem hai“, we have transitioned to “Zindagi ka Dusra Naam Darr hai“!
Last week, we were optimistic, hopeful, relieved about a recovery taking place. That optimism and hope has been washed away in four days. The Nifty bled, but it was the broader markets that bled and some more. 99 out of 100 and 90 out of 100 – If these were our scores in Algebra and Geometry in our childhood, our parents would be really proud. But no. These are the number of stocks in the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap index respectively, which ended with losses on Friday. It was not just Friday, that’s the story of the entire week. It is almost as if the bears dressed up as Gabbar Singh and demanded, “Yeh recovery, humko de de Bulls. Yeh Recovery Humko de de!“
The market may be battered and bruised, but there is one thing we have to admit. The market has depth. IPOs like Jio Platforms are proof of that. A ₹30,000 crore issue, in a weak market, where there is selling in almost every sector, ends up getting bids worth nearly ₹5 lakh crore (Ex-Anchor Book). That’s putting money where the mouth is for you. Jio Platforms also went on to achieve many more records during the three-day bidding period, and next week will be even more important for the company, as the allotment takes place for eligible shareholders on Monday and the mega listing happens on Wednesday, October 28.
At the end of the day, there will be higher and lower oil prices, higher and lower bond yields, higher and lower interest rates, but what ultimately moves the market is EARNINGS. Just as KARMA is a five-letter word, EARNINGS is exactly the same word, but in seven letters. Gabbar Singh’s entry sequence in Sholay shows him putting a gun to the head of his three men, and the gun doesn’t fire on either of them. Put International Gemmological Institute, Tata Tele and L&T Tech instead of the three men. Good earnings, Teeno bach gaye! Reported weekly gains at a time when almost everything on the screen was red. Now replace them with Swiggy, Himadri Specialty Chemicals and KEI Industries. The street doesn’t like the numbers, the gun fires on all three of them, and the result? All of them down between 20% and 25% for the week. Sazaa mili, baraabar mili.
Then comes the next fear. AI. But right now, it’s not AI that is causing the fear, the theme itself is worried, scared, tense. The trade has begun to unwind. Why? Too many things to be about any one in particular. Some disappointing results, the excessive debt taken up by some companies and the yields on that debt reaching levels of distress, companies announcing more spending plans when even the current ones have not reached fruition yet, and if all of that was not enough, there is cybersecurity. Who bore the brunt of this? The retail guys. They always do. JPMorgan says retail loaded up on these semiconductor and memory chip makers last week, and they got smashed in this one. But what will retail do? They’ll buy more at the earliest opportunity. They always do. Their hope and optimism sometimes put even those words to shame.
Since we were on Cybersecurity, the casualty of the week has been eMudhra. Private keys associated with its certificates were compromised. It’s too technical a subject to explain in non-technical language. So we left this task to our friend Ashmit Kumar, who does it beautifully in this video. The management, though, called it a “one-off incident on a bad day.” The market definitely did not think of it that way. Two straight days of 20% lower circuits and an exit from the business that the issue was associated with – the reactions to a “one-off incident on a bad day” are never so extreme. Hear out the management also speak to us on this issue and the defence they put up in this video.
Just as we have FOMO and JOMO, there should be a FODT too. The Fear Of Donald Trump. We just don’t know when he wakes up and writes something on Truth Social that sends everybody around helter-skelter, announces something that nobody has a clue about, or says something outlandish in a rally that leaves people scratching their heads. Tariffs, a war that will now enter month No. 9, an election to face, and the lowest approval rating on record, the man has turned the world on its head in 2026 but remains hopeful of a Nobel Peace Prize. Think about it, jab 50-50 kos door koi ultra-bullish ya bearish ho jaata hai, to log kehte hai, bete Truth Social dekh le, Trump kuch likh dega!
We get into the business end of the earnings season next week. Multiple Nifty results, broader market names, the Fed rate decision, monthly expiries, and so much more. And then there is the market volatility and geopolitical tensions to grapple with anyway. We’ll be on top of things as always. You don’t need to fear about that part for sure! Subscribe to our newsletter, follow us on our social media handles, and you’ll get the latest brew, the fastest and the most accurate!
Investing is difficult. Especially for smaller investors. The constant fear, especially in scenarios like these – whether the market will recover? Should I put money in now? Should I go all in or do it in a staggered way? What if the market falls more after I invest? What if the stocks I invest in fall more? But such is the market, right? And Such is life too. And who better than Gabbar Singh, Vald Hari Singh to tell us the biggest principle to overcome any fear we have, whether it be in life or for the markets – Jo Darr Gaya, Samjho Marr Gaya!