Jio Platforms Share Price: After a blockbuster stock market debut, Mukesh Ambani-led Jio Platforms has entered a new phase, with brokerages identifying telecom tariff hikes, rising average revenue per user (ARPU), broadband expansion, digital services and improving cash flows as key growth drivers.
Jio Platforms made its stock market debut on Wednesday, October 28, listing at Rs 1,358 per share on both the NSE and BSE, a premium of 21.4 per cent over its IPO issue price of Rs 1,119. The listing followed the company’s Rs 30,213 crore initial public offering.
With the IPO now behind it, attention is shifting towards the company’s earnings prospects and the factors that could drive its next phase of growth.
Brokerages Nomura, Motilal Oswal Financial Services and Elara Securities have initiated coverage on Jio Platforms with Buy ratings, assigning target prices between Rs 1,340 and Rs 1,367.
Jio Platforms share price target: What brokerages recommend
Brokerage Rating Target price Upside from issue price
- Nomura – Buy Rs 1,340 19.7%
- Motilal Oswal – Buy Rs 1,350 20.6%
- Elara Securities – Buy Rs 1,367 22.2%
The upside estimates are calculated against the IPO issue price of Rs 1,119, not the listing price of Rs 1,358. At the listing price, all three brokerage targets are within approximately 1.3 per cent of the stock’s debut value.
Here are five factors that brokerages believe could support Jio Platforms’ growth over the coming years.
1. Telecom tariff hikes could boost Jio’s earnings
One of the key potential earnings triggers for Jio Platforms is a fresh round of telecom tariff increases.
Nomura expects an industry-wide tariff hike of approximately 15 per cent during November–December 2026.
According to the brokerage, Jio held back tariff increases ahead of its IPO to protect subscriber growth. With the listing completed, Nomura expects the company’s focus to shift towards improving earnings.
The brokerage estimates that every Rs 10 increase in Jio’s ARPU could lift its EBITDA by approximately 3.7 per cent.
Motilal Oswal also expects tariff increases to support earnings, although its forecast assumes a different timeline.
In its initiation report, the brokerage models an approximately 15 per cent tariff hike in March 2027, which it expects to support ARPU growth alongside subscriber additions and premiumisation.
2. Rising ARPU and subscriber additions could support revenue growth
Apart from tariff increases, Jio’s ability to add subscribers and encourage customers to move towards higher-value plans could support its revenue growth.
Motilal Oswal expects Jio’s consumer wireless subscriber base, excluding machine-to-machine SIMs, to increase to approximately 510 million by FY29, compared with around 474 million in FY26.
The brokerage also projects Jio’s consumer wireless ARPU, excluding machine-to-machine SIMs, to rise from approximately Rs 210 in FY26 to Rs 262 by FY29.
According to the report, this improvement is expected to be supported by tariff increases, subscriber additions and premiumisation.
Motilal Oswal expects Jio’s consumer wireless revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5 per cent between FY26 and FY29.
The brokerage also expects Jio to maintain its leadership position in India’s wireless market, supported by its subscriber base and continued network investments.
3. Broadband expansion offers another growth opportunity
Home broadband is another business that brokerages expect to become an increasingly important contributor to Jio’s growth.
Motilal Oswal believes India’s relatively low home broadband penetration provides significant room for expansion.
The brokerage expects India’s home broadband subscriber base to approach 95 million by FY29, with Jio accounting for approximately 50 million subscribers.
Jio’s JioFiber and JioAirFiber offerings are expected to play an important role in expanding its presence in the market.
According to Motilal Oswal, Jio’s home broadband revenue contribution to its standalone business could increase to approximately 12 per cent by FY29, compared with around 8 per cent in FY26.
The brokerage values Jio’s home broadband business at approximately Rs 1.45 lakh crore.
Nomura also identifies India’s low broadband penetration and expectations of faster growth in disposable income as factors supporting Jio’s premium valuation relative to global telecom companies.
4. AI, cloud and digital services could unlock new growth
Beyond its traditional telecom operations, Jio Platforms is expanding into digital services, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and enterprise solutions.
Nomura considers Jio’s digital and AI businesses as potential sources of additional upside.
Motilal Oswal also sees opportunities in Jio’s expanding digital ecosystem, which includes services such as JioHotstar, JioCloud, JioPC and JioThings.
The brokerage expects Jio’s non-telecom businesses to contribute increasingly to the company’s overall revenue and profitability.
According to its projections, revenue from Jio’s non-Reliance Jio Infocomm businesses could grow at a CAGR of approximately 23 per cent between FY26 and FY29.
Motilal Oswal also highlights opportunities in enterprise communications, cloud services, connected devices and digital platforms.
Meanwhile, Nomura views Jio’s satellite connectivity plans primarily as protection against potential disruption rather than a significant near-term revenue opportunity.
5. Improving profitability and cash flows could strengthen Jio’s finances
Motilal Oswal expects Jio Platforms to benefit from improving profitability and relatively stable capital expenditure over the coming years.
The brokerage projects approximately 14 per cent CAGR in Jio Platforms’ consolidated revenue between FY26 and FY29.
It also expects reported EBITDA to grow by around 15 per cent annually during the same period, with EBITDA margins reaching approximately 51.5 per cent by FY29.
On the cash flow front, Motilal Oswal expects Jio Platforms to generate cumulative free cash flow of approximately Rs 1.46 lakh crore between FY26 and FY29.
The brokerage expects the company to move into a net cash position by FY29, supported by improving operating cash flows and capital expenditure remaining within a relatively stable range.
Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,350, based on an approximately 11.5 times FY29 estimated enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple.
Why does Nomura see a premium valuation for Jio Platforms?
Nomura values Jio Platforms at 12 times its December 2028 estimated rolling EBITDA, broadly in line with its valuation of Bharti Airtel’s India business.
The brokerage believes Jio deserves a premium valuation relative to global telecom peers because of India’s relatively inexpensive telecom tariffs, low broadband penetration and expectations of faster disposable income growth.
Nomura has initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,340.
Meanwhile, Elara Securities has assigned a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,367, the highest among the three brokerages covered.
Jio Platforms IPO: Why April 26, 2027, is an important date
While brokerages remain positive on Jio’s growth prospects, investors will also need to monitor the expiry of the company’s pre-IPO investor lock-in period.
According to Nomura, the six-month lock-in period for pre-IPO investors is scheduled to expire on April 26, 2027.
The expiry is expected to release approximately 32.6 per cent of Jio Platforms’ equity from lock-in restrictions.
This does not necessarily mean that existing investors will sell their shares immediately. However, the availability of a substantial quantity of shares for potential trading could become an important factor for the stock.
What are the key risks for Jio Platforms?
Despite the positive growth outlook, Motilal Oswal has identified several risks that could affect Jio Platforms’ earnings and valuation.
These include intense competition in the telecom sector, potential delays in tariff increases, regulatory changes, technology disruption and the capital-intensive nature of telecom infrastructure.
The brokerage has also highlighted Jio’s dependence on Reliance Group entities and deferred tax liabilities as factors requiring attention.
Any delay in the expected tariff hikes could affect ARPU growth and earnings estimates, while higher-than-expected capital expenditure could weigh on future cash flows.
Jio Platforms share price: What should investors watch next?
With Jio Platforms’ IPO and stock market listing completed, investors’ focus is likely to shift from listing gains towards the company’s financial performance and execution of its growth plans.
The timing of the next telecom tariff hike, improvement in ARPU, subscriber additions, broadband expansion and profitability of digital services will be among the important factors to monitor.
While Nomura, Motilal Oswal and Elara Securities have initiated coverage with Buy ratings, Jio’s listing price of Rs 1,358 is already close to their respective target prices.
Jio Platforms share price
The stock closed at Rs 1,417.50, up 4.38 per cent from its listing price (Rs 1,358) on NSE.
(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)