Voters in the United States are set to decide on November 3 whether the incumbent President Donald Trump’s Republican Party keeps control of Congress.
The result could shape India’s trade deal, the tariffs its exporters paid and the money flowing into Indian markets. All 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election, with Republicans holding both chambers.
What a divided Congress would change
Jefferies said in its October 4 report that the average effective US tariff rate would stay between 10% and 20% even under a divided government.
The brokerage favoured a Democratic House win. It noted that the president’s party lost House seats in 18 of 20 postwar midterms.
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A Democratic House could examine tariff decisions, question trade negotiations and try to limit the president’s powers. Congress, however, held limited sway over tariffs.
The White House still calls the shots
Trump kept his veto and his executive authority. The Supreme Court struck down his emergency-law tariffs in February, so his team relied on other trade laws.
Republican control of both chambers would have let that approach continue with fewer checks.
Analysts quoted by WION said the White House, not Congress, would decide the fate of the India deal.
India weighs its options
That leaves India facing uncertainty rather than an overnight change in market access.
The Hindu BusinessLine reported in April that New Delhi might slow talks until after the election. A Democratic House could curb sweeping tariff changes and strengthen India’s bargaining hand.
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India would celebrate once the India-US trade deal’s details became public. “Not a single sensitive interest of our farmers or any stakeholder has been compromised,” he said.
Markets will await a firm deal
When the deal was announced, the Sensex and Nifty rose about 2.5% in a day. The rupee gained 122 paise to close at 90.27 against the dollar.
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Brokerage Antique said foreign investors had pulled out $34 billion from Indian equities since October 2024, the highest among emerging markets. It said a firm deal could reverse that.
Results are due on November 3. The deal still awaits a signature, though negotiators have settled most major issues.