Nifty Outlook for November 3: Can Reliance Industries help Nifty move back to 24,000 in the near-term

Indian equity markets started the week on a strong note, extending their recent recovery as easing crude oil prices, positive global cues and encouraging corporate earnings boosted investor sentiment. The Nifty surged 387 points to reclaim the 23,400 mark, while the Sensex rallied 1,233 points to close at 75,693.

Buying was broad-based, with energy, metals and select auto stocks leading the gains. The Nifty Bank advanced 315 points to 55,002, while the midcap index gained 682 points to close at 57,983. Market breadth remained firmly in favour of advancing stocks, with midcap and smallcap indices also registering gains.

Among the key movers, Reliance Industries led the market rally, with its strong September quarter performance driving a substantial increase in investor wealth. The company recorded its highest-ever single-day market capitalisation addition of over ₹1.8 lakh crore, alongside its biggest single-day share price gain in six years.

Falling crude oil prices provided an additional boost to energy-related stocks, particularly oil marketing companies and paint manufacturers. Brent crude declined nearly 4% towards $108 per barrel, easing concerns around input costs and potential supply disruptions. Indian Oil Corporation emerged as the top Nifty gainer.

The broader market also saw stock-specific action following quarterly earnings and management commentary. Dixon Technologies gained 12% on healthy Q2 growth and commentary highlighting its artificial intelligence opportunity. Delhivery advanced 6% after reporting a strong quarterly performance, while Muthoot Finance rose 5% after announcing healthy Q2 numbers and raising its FY27 assets under management growth guidance.

On the other hand, Lodha Developers plunged 35% after management struck a cautious tone on the outlook, particularly for the entry-level housing segment. PB Fintech declined 7% amid expectations of a regulatory paper from the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) concerning commissions. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries slipped 1% following cautious management commentary after its earnings announcement.

Auto stocks ended mixed following the release of monthly sales numbers, with passenger vehicle manufacturers outperforming two-wheeler companies. IndiGo finished higher, although it pared some of its intraday gains, as management commentary on the December quarter remained positive. UPL ended marginally higher after reporting September quarter earnings that were largely ahead of estimates.

On the macroeconomic front, Brent crude prices eased from their recent high of around $118 per barrel amid renewed diplomatic discussions involving Iran and Qatar, raising hopes of de-escalation in West Asia. The decline helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions, although crude prices remain elevated in absolute terms.

Domestic sentiment also drew support from October GST collections, which rose 23% year-on-year to ₹2.31 lakh crore, marking their fastest growth in over four years. Signs of renewed foreign investor interest and encouraging corporate earnings further supported the recovery.

Going ahead, market participants will track developments in West Asia, movements in crude oil prices and the outcome of the November 3 US midterm elections. These factors, alongside institutional flows and the upcoming earnings announcements, could influence the sustainability of the current recovery.

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the underlying trend for the Nifty remains sharply positive, with the next key resistance placed around 23,600. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a further rally towards 24,000 in a relatively short period. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 23,200.

Vatsal Bhuva of LKP Securities said that Nifty has registered a strong technical breakout, moving above its falling trendline resistance and decisively reclaiming the 50-day moving average on the daily chart. The formation of higher lows on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further indicates improving momentum.

These technical developments suggest that the ongoing recovery could extend, with the index potentially advancing towards its 100-day moving average, placed around 23,700. Immediate support is seen in the 23,100-23,150 zone, while resistance is placed at 23,500 and 23,700.

A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended, with a strict stop-loss at 22,900.

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the Nifty faces resistance around 23,500, and a decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for an advance towards 23,800-23,900. On the downside, the 22,900-23,200 range is expected to provide immediate support.