Hiren Ved, Director and CIO of Alchemy Capital Management, expects the Nifty to move towards 29,000–30,000 by next Samvat, believing that the Indian market is poised for a stronger run after an extended period of underperformance. He sees the domestic economy holding up well despite concerns over crude oil prices, trade policy, currency movements and foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows.
Speaking in an interview to CNBC-TV18, Ved said he expects a reasonable rally over the next 12 months, provided crude oil prices remain below $100 per barrel. He believes the market’s earlier underperformance has created room for a stronger recovery.
“It’s not time for a sprint. It’s time for a marathon,” Ved said, suggesting that investors should look beyond short-term market movements.
Among his preferred investment themes are new-age platform businesses, electric two-wheelers and select technology services companies. He also sees further value in Reliance Industries.
Why Ved likes new-age platform businesses
Ved believes companies such as Eternal, Paytm and CarTrade are benefiting from India’s digital technology infrastructure, which is enabling entrepreneurs to build scalable and profitable businesses. He disclosed that these stocks have been part of Alchemy Capital Management’s client portfolios for some time.
He said these companies have begun demonstrating that they can generate profits and attractive returns on capital as they scale. Their ability to bring fragmented markets together by connecting demand and supply is another advantage.
Quick commerce is one example. Ved pointed to the growing number of direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands across categories such as food, cosmetics, apparel and footwear. These brands need platforms to reach consumers and build visibility, creating an opportunity for quick-commerce companies.
“These platforms take away 20%, 30% or 40% of the gross margins of those companies, which otherwise you wouldn’t have been able to participate in,” he said.
Ved believes several platform businesses are increasingly displaying winner-takes-all characteristics. He sees Eternal as having established a clear lead in execution and scale over Swiggy in quick commerce.
Companies that have struggled to achieve profitability may have to slow their growth and reduce cash burn. Alternatively, they could become acquisition candidates for businesses looking to enter the segment.
He cautioned investors against choosing stocks simply because one company appears cheaper than its competitor. Given the volatility in these businesses, he said investors need to size their positions carefully and have conviction in their ability to build dominant businesses.
Ather among Ved’s preferred auto stocks
In the automobile space, Ved identified Ather as one of his preferred investments, citing its execution and technology capabilities.
He acknowledged that the electric two-wheeler market is not entirely a winner-takes-all business, with established players such as TVS and Bajaj also performing well in the electric vehicle segment.
However, he believes Ather has built a strong business by focusing on technology, software, customer experience, service and after-sales support. Unlike traditional automobile manufacturers, Ather did not have an existing internal combustion engine (ICE) business to contend with when it entered the market, allowing it to build its business from first principles.
Ved also expects electric two-wheeler penetration to increase rapidly, as consumers look to protect themselves against higher petrol prices.
“I genuinely believe that Ather will probably be one of the most successful electric two-wheeler companies,” he said.
Reliance Industries still has value to unlock
Ved believes Reliance Industries has further value to unlock, particularly in its retail business, following the stock’s recent recovery.
He attributed the company’s improved performance to stronger refining and petrochemical margins, as well as value being unlocked in its new-age platforms. He also believes the stock’s earlier decline was probably unwarranted.
While the subsequent recovery has resulted in some catch-up, Ved sees scope for the retail business to unlock further value. He also pointed to refining margins as an important source of cash generation for the company.
Select IT services stocks could deliver 40–50% returns
Ved expects some technology services companies to make a strong comeback over the next year, although he did not identify specific stocks.
He said the recovery would be selective, with one or two large-cap companies potentially emerging as winners. Some of these stocks could deliver returns of 40–50% over the next year, he said, adding that such gains would be significant for large-cap companies.