Oil prices could ease if tensions in West Asia subside, but crude is unlikely to return to pre-war levels, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.
Hansen expects Brent crude to settle in the $70-$90 per barrel range, compared with the $60-$70 range seen before the conflict began.
He said a resolution to the conflict could help restore normal oil supplies and reduce additional costs arising from shipping and security disruptions. However, rebuilding global oil stockpiles over the coming quarters could lend support to prices and limit the downside.
While crude prices may soften if the geopolitical situation improves, the impact of higher fuel costs could take longer to ease. Hansen said consumers across India, Europe and other regions have faced elevated prices for diesel, jet fuel and marine fuel.
“The prospect of these coming down probably will take a bit longer because that really depends on a full restoration of supplies from the Middle East, from the refineries. So, on that front, we probably, unfortunately, have to be a bit more patient,” he said.
Gold could reclaim earlier highs; silver outlook remains subdued
Looking beyond oil, Hansen expects gold to recover over the next 12-18 months and potentially reclaim the highs recorded earlier this year.
He believes the precious metal could find support from easing inflation, a possible shift towards interest rate cuts, and persistent concerns around government spending and de-dollarisation.
However, he is less optimistic about silver, which has seen a sharp correction and is struggling to regain investor momentum. Hansen expects gold to outperform silver, with the gold-silver ratio likely to remain above its long-term average.
Copper’s long-term outlook remains positive
On base metals, Hansen said copper’s long-term outlook remains positive, supported by electrification and the global energy transition.
While concerns around AI-related demand and uncertainty over US import tariffs could create near-term pressure, demand from China and other markets continues to provide support.
He added that demand from data centres may moderate but is unlikely to disappear. At the same time, mining companies face challenges in meeting future supply requirements, a factor that could continue to support copper prices.
For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video
Brent crude may find support at $70–$90 as global oil inventories rebuild: Saxo Bank