Raghvesh, Insurance & Capital Markets Research Analyst, JM Financial Institutional Securities, said, “There was a sense of weakness in the markets,” pointing to lower demand for market-linked products.
The slowdown is linked to multiple factors. Volatility in equity markets reduced demand for ULIPs. “In volatile markets, the demand for ULIPs… has traditionally been lower,” Raghvesh said. At the same time, expectations of interest rate hikes led customers to delay savings decisions.
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January and February remained steady, but March saw a decline in sales, affecting annual premium equivalent (APE) growth. HDFC Life is likely to see a drop in March APE, leading to the financial year 2025-26 (FY26) growth of around 8%, below its guidance of 13%. ICICI Prudential Life may also report a decline in APE, missing its growth expectations. In contrast, SBI Life and Axis Max Life are expected to meet or exceed their guidance, supported by stable distribution and consistent growth trends.
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Geopolitical concerns also affected sentiment, reducing financial commitments during the period.
Early trends indicate that weakness may have continued into April. However, Raghvesh said this may not fully reflect demand trends. “April is a very small month… the first week, 10 days… are always slow,” he noted.
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Looking ahead, growth visibility remains uncertain if market volatility continues. Among insurers, SBI Life and Axis Max Life are expected to remain relatively stable, while others may face pressure until demand improves.
With market uncertainty impacting insurance demand and growth visibility, Raghvesh is turning selective, preferring insurers with stronger and more stable business models. “At this point, as long as we believe there is uncertainty in the markets, I would prefer SBI Life in the life insurance space, followed by Max followed by ICICI Prudential Life, and then HDFC Life. ICICI Prudential Life is more of a valuation call. But even if growth is weak, we expect the strength of the franchisee to recover to growth in the next few months,” he said.
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