Oil unlikely to fall below $80/bbl amid supply disruptions: Maulik Patel

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Crude oil prices are likely to stay elevated, affecting fuel demand and weighing on city gas distribution (CGD) companies, according to Maulik Patel, Head of Research, Equirus Investment Securities.

Patel said oil markets have shifted to a higher range due to supply disruptions. “It will not come below $80 per barrel,” he said. Currently, Brent crude oil is trading around $101.90 per barrel.

Higher fuel costs and policy changes are impacting CGD companies such as Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) and Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL). Patel noted that growth in CNG demand has slowed. “IGL has been reporting around 4–5% growth… and it will continue to be there,” he said, indicating limited upside in volumes.

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He also flagged structural challenges, including slower growth in core markets like Delhi and policy constraints affecting vehicle adoption.

However, Patel said reforms could support the sector. He highlighted the need to bring gas under goods and services tax (GST) and rationalise taxes on compressed natural gas (CNG) to improve demand. Without such steps, growth is likely to remain moderate.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

On investment strategy, he advised buying CGD stocks on corrections. “Go for any kind of dip for IGL and MGL,” he said.

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