Kolkata: Eighty-eight minutes on the clock at Turf Moor, Pep Guardiola was visibly agitated and very animated. When Rayan Cherki went solo and drove wide in the 90th minute the Manchester City manager showed four fingers, possibly conveying passing options, and looked upset. After Wednesday’s Premier League match ended 1-0, City managing to protect Erling Haaland’s fifth minute strike, Guardiola swung an arm, got into a huddle with his staff and may have even been smiling.
On 70 points, Manchester City had done just enough to knock Arsenal off the perch, on the goals scored metric. This is the first time after a matchweek this season that City are above Arsenal. Can they keep doing that for five more matches and win their sixth title in eight seasons? Can they hold on?
City are known to be relentless on the home stretch. A statistic quoted on television during the match against Burnley bears this out: City have lost once in their last 10 games in the last four seasons. It’s different this time because, well, City have looked iffy and Arsenal more assured in trying to end a 22-year wait.
A seven-match winning run late last year, full points from six straight matches in February and the current four-match victory streak notwithstanding, City’s form has been patchy in 2025-26. The 1-1 draw against Arsenal with 32.8% possession – the lowest in over 600 matches for Guardiola as manager/coach – victories at home and in Europe without keeping the ball, and dropping 15 points from winning positions were unusual.
As was the match against Fulham where City led 3-0 but won 5-4. Against Leeds United, City let slip a two-goal lead before winning 3-2. Against Tottenham Hotspur, they failed to protect a two-goal lead and dropped two points. After City lost to Nottingham Forest in December, they drew against Sunderland, Chelsea, Brighton and lost a Manchester derby. Before the win against Burnley, City had drawn against Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Tottenham Hotspur. Of the bottom six City could do the double only on Wolves and Leeds.
And they were fading in the second half. According to The Guardian, City would have 68 points if matches ended in the first half and 42 if they began in the second. This was after the 1-1 draw against West Ham. “In the past we always found a way to win this kind of games….This season the fact that we didn’t score goals for the amount of chances, it punished us,” Guardiola said after that match.
There were vignettes of that at Burnley where City had 27 attempts. O’Reilly was denied by Martin Dúbravka twice in the first 27 minutes and shot to the goalie from close in the 90th. Nico Gonzalez dragged a shot wide through a thicket of legs and Marc Guéhi came close with a header. Haaland hit the post in the 55th minute and later didn’t get enough contact after Jeremy Doku and Bernardo Silva combined to find him. Their relegation confirmed after the defeat, Burnley came close through Zian Fleming who, with the license to shoot, couldn’t find the target.
“In these types of games, if you score the second or third that you deserve, everything’s more fluid and natural,” Guardiola said. “But the main target was winning the game.”
City scored by playing out from the back, like Guardiola wants his teams to. They have dominated possession in six of their last seven matches in all competitions. After a spell of five goals in 20 matches, Haaland has returned to form and now has 35 goals for City in all competitions.
Bernardo ran 12.4km against Arsenal on Sunday and, as per Premier League records, has logged 327.6 km this term before the match against Burnley. It is the most distance covered by a player over 30. Cherki can exasperate and excite, but he has been doing more of the former recently. O’Reilly looks comfortable as left back and in central midfield. Though City dropped off in the second half against Burnley, they have scored twice after half-time against Liverpool and Arsenal and thrice against Chelsea in the past four weeks.
If the low block against Arsenal was acknowledgement of their superiority – “against top teams you have to defend,” Guardiola had said – City’s approach in the League Cup final and on Sunday was on an equal footing. They won both. Then, in three days City did enough to go top. This term they also beat Liverpool at Anfield with fans for the first time under Guardiola and are in the FA Cup semi-final. The times they are a-changin?
