Gold edges up, holds near $4,700 an ounce
COMEX gold futures for June delivery were last seen at $4,700.70 per ounce, up $7 or 0.15%, after moving in a narrow range between $4,697 and $4,716 an ounce in early trade. In the spot market, gold hovered around $4,693 per ounce, reflecting a mild gain of about 0.2%.
The metal has largely consolidated around the $4,700 an ounce mark after recovering from last week’s decline, with price action indicating a pause as markets await fresh macro triggers.
Silver sees mild recovery
Silver prices also moved higher, with COMEX silver at $75.235 per ounce, up 0.28%. Spot silver rose to around $75.9 per ounce, outperforming gold slightly after a sharper fall in the previous week.
Geopolitics vs rates: a market in balance
Bullion markets are currently navigating two opposing forces.
On one hand, geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—continue to support safe-haven demand. Reports of a new proposal from Tehran and ongoing diplomatic back-and-forth have kept uncertainty elevated, especially with disruptions to regional energy flows pushing crude oil prices higher.
On the other hand, tight monetary policy expectations are limiting gains. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady this week, but elevated Treasury yields and a strong dollar are reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Comments from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, indicating a hawkish stance on inflation and central bank independence, have further tempered expectations of near-term rate cuts.
Key events in focus
Markets are closely tracking a series of high-impact events this week, including:
- US Federal Reserve policy decision
- Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England meetings
- US macro data such as GDP, PCE inflation, and ISM manufacturing
These events are expected to shape the near-term trajectory for bullion, particularly if policymakers signal prolonged policy tightening.
Competing forces at play
Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions, said the bullion market is facing “competing forces,” with geopolitical risks providing support while macroeconomic conditions cap upside.
He noted that a sustained move above resistance could open the path toward $5,000 an ounce levels, while failure to hold support may lead to a correction.
Kothari added that central bank buying and ETF demand remain structurally supportive, even as the pace of accumulation has moderated. A weaker Indian rupee, hovering around ₹94 against the dollar, is also keeping domestic prices elevated.
Silver, crude and broader cues
Silver is tracking both safe-haven and industrial cues, with analysts noting that the metal may remain volatile alongside gold.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices have surged—Brent above $108 per barrel and WTI above $96—amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated oil prices are feeding inflation concerns, indirectly supporting gold, but also reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Outlook
Analysts say bullion is likely to remain range-bound but volatile in the near term, with prices reacting sharply to any developments in West Asia diplomacy or central bank signals.
For now, gold and silver appear to be in a holding pattern, with investors awaiting clearer direction on both geopolitical risks and the global interest rate outlook.
–With Reuters inputs
