Microsoft raises 2026 capex guidance to $190 billion but cloud biz growth lags peers

Microsoft raises 2026 capex guidance to $190 billion but cloud biz growth lags peers


Microsoft Corp.’s cloud business growth just about managed to beat analyst expectations in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, raising concerns that the company is not fully capitalizing on the demand for its Artificial Intelligence services.

Microsoft Azure grew by 39% year-on-year during the quarter, adjusting for currency fluctuations. Analysts had projected growth to be at 38%. 20 million customers are now paying for Microsoft Copilot, higher than 15 million in the previous quarter.

For the quarter gone by, Microsoft’s revenue stood at $82.89 billion, higher than expectations of $81.39 billion. Its Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $4.27 was also higher than expectations of $4.06. Revenue growth during the quarter stood at 18%, lagging peers like Microsoft and Meta, whose topline grew much faster.

Microsoft now expects current quarter revenue to be between $86.7 billion to $87.8 billion, the mid-point for which, at $87.25 billion is lower than estimates of $87.53 billion. Azure will continue to grow between 39% to 40% in constant currency terms, the company said.

However, this means that Microsoft’s operating margin could decline to 44% in the fourth quarter, lower than consensus projections of 44.6%. Gross margins at 67.6% were also the lowest since 2022.

Microsoft spent $31.9 billion as capex during the quarter, up 49% year-on-year but lower than the consensus forecast of $34.9 billion. For the calendar year, Microsoft sees capex to be at $190 billion, including a $25 billion impact from higher component prices. Analysts had projected the figure to be $154.6 billion.

CEO Satya Nadella said that the company crossed an annual revenue run-rate of $37 billion for its AI business, more than double from the same period last year.

Shares of Microsoft fell as much as 3.5% in extended trading after the results announcement, but recovered marginally to trade little changed at $425. The stock has risen 19% in the last one month.



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