Indian equity markets may be moving in a narrow range at the moment, but market expert Jay Bala believes the broader trend remains firmly bullish. Speaking on ET Now, Bala shared an aggressive outlook for the markets, projecting the Nifty to scale the 29000-30000 zone by mid-to-late 2026.
According to him, recent geopolitical tensions and volatility in crude oil prices have only temporarily interrupted the market’s upward journey rather than changed the long-term trend.
Markets Still Bullish Despite Volatility
The trading session remained largely range-bound, with the Nifty hovering above the 24300 mark while broader markets continued to outperform. Midcap and smallcap indices posted stronger gains compared to benchmark indices, indicating that risk appetite remains intact beneath the surface.
Jay Bala said global markets, including India, continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments, especially through movements in crude oil prices. However, he believes crude has already formed a major top and could witness a sharp decline in the coming months.
He projected WTI crude oil prices could slide towards the USD 64 mark and even hinted that levels below USD 54 may eventually come into play over the longer term.
According to Bala, falling crude prices could significantly ease market concerns and support the next leg of the rally in equities.
Nifty Seen Hitting 30000 by 2026
The market expert reiterated that he has maintained a bullish stance on Indian equities since April 2025. While geopolitical tensions briefly pushed the market lower earlier, he said the correction did not damage the medium-term uptrend.
Bala expects the Nifty to climb towards the 29000-30000 range between August and September 2026.
He believes the rally will not be driven by one single sector alone, but rather through sector rotation, where different pockets of the market take leadership at different stages.
Sectors Jay Bala Is Bullish On
Defence and Capital Goods
He also pointed out that investors looking for wider exposure to the defence segment can consider sector-focused ETFs.
Realty Sector Could Make a Strong Comeback
Real estate is another space where Bala sees major upside potential. According to him, the sector has likely formed a bottom and may head towards fresh record highs again.
The expected revival in real estate, he added, may also provide tailwinds to infrastructure and cement companies.
Reliance Could Return as Market Support
One of the key themes Bala highlighted was the possible comeback of Reliance Industries as a market support stock.
He noted that Reliance has largely underperformed in recent months despite its heavy weightage in the indices. However, he expects the stock to regain strength over the next few months and provide support to the broader market rally.
Bala projected Reliance could move towards the Rs 1,700-1,750 range over a longer time frame while maintaining that the stock is unlikely to fall below the Rs 1300 mark.
IT Sector Still Not Out of Trouble
Unlike his bullish stance on defence and capital goods, Bala remains cautious on information technology stocks for now.
He said weakness in the IT space is not limited to India and can also be seen globally, especially in the US software sector. According to him, concerns around artificial intelligence disruption have weighed on the sector.
However, he believes the Nifty IT index may be close to forming a bottom. Bala expects a recovery to emerge eventually, though he prefers to wait for confirmation before turning fully bullish on the sector.
He also said large-cap IT names are likely to recover first, followed by stronger participation from midcap IT companies later.
What About Banks?
Bala believes private sector banks could take over market leadership from PSU banks in the next phase of the rally.
However, he clarified that banks may not necessarily emerge as the biggest leaders of the next market rally.
FMCG Still Weak Despite Bounce
The one sector Bala continues to avoid is FMCG.
He described the current rise in FMCG as more of a trading opportunity rather than a long-term investment play.
Pharma Finally Showing Strength
Pharma is another segment where Bala sees improving momentum.
After remaining largely sideways for an extended period, the sector has started breaking out, which he described as encouraging from a technical perspective.
Metal Stocks at a Crossroads
On metals, Bala maintained a more balanced approach.
While he has been bullish on the sector since late last year, he now believes the segment is entering a decisive phase. According to him, metals could either witness a healthy pullback before moving higher again or lose momentum temporarily.
He added that ferrous metal stocks are likely to lead if the sector eventually resumes its uptrend.
Crude Crash Could Benefit Oil and Tyre StocksIf crude oil prices indeed fall sharply, Bala believes several sectors linked to energy costs could benefit.
He expects oil marketing companies such as HPCL and BPCL, along with tyre manufacturers, to gain from lower input costs. Among tyre stocks, he remains optimistic on TVS Srichakra.
According to Bala, charts are already indicating that the top in crude prices may be in place and that easing geopolitical tensions could accelerate the decline further.
