In such environments, investment experts say the focus shifts less toward predicting short-term market moves and more toward building resilient, diversified portfolios.
A key theme highlighted by market experts is that oil price shocks are a recurring feature of the global economy rather than a rare disruption. For India, which relies heavily on crude imports, changes in oil prices tend to transmit quickly into currency movements, inflation trends and overall market sentiment.
While these shifts can feel sharp in the short term, they have historically been part of broader economic cycles.
Paresh Bhagat, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Veer Growth Fund (AIF) and Fund Manager & Chairman at Mangal Keshav Financial Services, noted that investors often react strongly to spikes in crude oil, even though such episodes are not unusual. He said that oil price swings should be viewed as part of the long-term investment landscape rather than signals for immediate portfolio changes.
According to him, the more practical approach is to prepare for multiple scenarios instead of trying to forecast commodity movements. When oil prices rise, currencies can weaken and inflation may remain elevated for longer; when they fall, different macroeconomic pressures may emerge. In either case, he suggested that portfolio stability depends on structure rather than prediction.
Bhagat emphasised diversification as a key response strategy. He suggested that exposure to global equities can help balance the impact of domestic currency fluctuations, while a modest allocation to gold may act as a stabiliser during periods of geopolitical stress and volatility. He also stressed that investment decisions should be aligned with time horizon—short-term goals typically require lower-risk instruments, while long-term wealth creation is better supported through equities.
A similar multi-asset approach is being discussed by other market participants as well.
Sidharth Sogani Jain, Founder, CEO and Fund Manager at Blue Aster Capital and CREBACO Global, said current global conditions are characterised by uncertainty-driven investment behaviour, where investors often delay decisions expecting better entry points. He noted that such behaviour can sometimes intensify market volatility.
He outlined a diversified framework that includes gold, crude oil, Bitcoin and equities, with each asset serving a different role in portfolio construction. Gold continues to be viewed as a traditional hedge during inflationary and geopolitical stress, supported by steady demand from central banks and investors. However, he also noted that gold can be volatile and requires disciplined allocation.
On crude oil, he described it as a short-term, high-volatility asset influenced heavily by geopolitical developments and supply disruptions, requiring careful exposure management. Digital assets such as Bitcoin, meanwhile, are increasingly being considered by some investors as an alternative store of value, supported by growing institutional participation, though they remain highly volatile.
Despite near-term uncertainty, equities continue to be central to long-term portfolios, particularly broad index funds linked to developed markets and sectors driven by structural themes such as technology and artificial intelligence.
