Rupee weakens marginally against dollar: Key triggers to watch

Rupee weakens marginally against dollar: Key triggers to watch


The Indian rupee opened slightly weaker on Thursday (April 9), tracking a cautious global mood as uncertainty around the West Asia ceasefire weighed on risk sentiment and pushed crude oil prices higher.

Opening levels and movement

The rupee began the session at 92.66 per US dollar, compared with Wednesday’s (April 8’s) close of 92.58.

This marks a decline of 0.08 paise, or roughly 0.09% depreciation, indicating mild pressure on the domestic currency at the start of trade.

Why the rupee slipped

The primary driver behind the rupee’s weakness was a shift in global risk appetite, triggered by renewed concerns over oil supply disruptions.

Ceasefire uncertainty lifts oil prices

Hopes of a sustained ceasefire between Iran and the US had briefly improved sentiment, but fresh geopolitical tensions have cast doubt on whether oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalise.

  • Brent crude futures rebounded over 2% to $96.76 per barrel
  • This comes after a sharp 13.2% fall in the previous session

The rebound reflects market anxiety that oil supply routes may remain disrupted longer than expected.

Fragile geopolitical backdrop

  • Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon
  • Iran signaling reluctance to proceed with peace talks
  • Shipping firms seeking clarity before resuming transit

Together, these factors have reinforced uncertainty, keeping energy markets volatile and pressuring oil-importing currencies like the rupee.

Risk sentiment turns cautious

The broader market tone also turned slightly risk-off:

  • Asian currencies weakened 0.1%–0.4%
  • US equity futures slipped about 0.2%
  • Federal Reserve meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, offering limited support to global risk assets

For emerging market currencies, including the rupee, such conditions typically lead to mild depreciation as investors move toward safer assets.

What could limit the downside?

Despite the weak start, traders expect some intraday support for the rupee:

  • Ongoing unwinding of arbitrage positions by banks could provide demand for the local currency
  • This technical factor may cushion sharper losses in the near term

However, market participants remain cautious about the near-term trajectory.

A trader at a private bank indicated that the dollar/rupee pair may show a slight downward bias in the next couple of sessions, before potentially moving back toward 93.50 levels.

With Reuters inputs



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