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Sensex Prediction for Monday: The Indian equity markets witnessed a volatile recovery on Friday, March 20, as the indices – BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty – clawed back some ground following their steepest single-day crash in nearly two years. While intense buying in PSU banks, IT, and metal stocks provided a necessary cushion, the indices gave up most of their intra-day gains to end nearly half a per cent higher amid mounting concerns over a further spike in fuel-driven inflation and escalating tensions in West Asia.
However, underlying technical signals suggest that the rebound lacks conviction, leaving markets vulnerable heading into Monday’s session.
Sensex at close on Friday, March 20
The 50-share NSE Nifty edged higher by 112.35 points, or 0.49 per cent, to end at 23,114.50. Intra-day, it jumped 343 points, or 1.49 per cent, to 23,345.15.
Despite the gains, both indices surrendered a significant portion of their intraday highs, reflecting persistent selling pressure at elevated levels.
“Market breadth was mixed to slightly positive, indicating selective buying rather than a broad-based rally. PSU Banking, IT, and Pharma sectors witnessed upside momentum, providing key support to the index, while other segments remained relatively muted and range-bound,” Tailor added.
Sensex Prediction for Monday, March 23 by experts
Heading into Monday’s session, technical analysts suggest that while the immediate bleeding has stopped, the structural trend remains fragile. The primary focus for the new week will be whether the Sensex can decisively breach overhead resistance or if it will succumb to “sell-on-rise” pressure.
Sensex Prediction for Monday, March 23 by Vipin Dixena
Vipin Dixena, a SEBI-registered analyst, maintains a bearish outlook despite the recent bounce. He noted that the intraday chart shows a “weak bounce within a broader downtrend,” characterised by lower highs and lower lows.
“Price is holding just above the key 74,000 support, while repeated rejections are visible near 75,300 resistance, indicating supply dominance. Structure remains lower highs and lower lows, keeping the overall bias bearish despite short-term pullbacks,” he said.
According to Dixena, the EMA 50 is sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. RSI at 39 is below midline, indicating weak momentum with no strong bullish divergence yet.
Technical levels to watch on Monday
Dixena warned that as long as the index remains below 75,300, the bias remains negative. “As long as price stays below 75,300, bias remains sell-on-rise, and a breakdown can extend the move toward 73,500–73,000. Only a sustained move above 75,300 can shift momentum toward 76,000,” he concluded.
Sensex Prediction for Monday, March 23 by Hitesh Tailor
Offering a more neutral perspective, Hitesh Tailor of Choice Equity Broking highlighted signs of stabilisation near lower levels. “From a technical perspective, the index has shown initial signs of stabilisation after the sharp sell-off, but momentum remains limited and requires follow-through strength for confirmation,” the analyst said.
Technical levels to watch on Monday
The 73,900–74,000 band acts as an immediate demand zone where dip-buying interest may emerge on any pullback, while the 75,000–75,200 range stands as the immediate resistance hurdle, where upside is likely to face supply pressure and profit booking, he noted.
On the market bias for Monday, he said, “With a modest recovery and close above immediate levels, the near-term outlook remains cautiously neutral, and a sustained upside follow-through will be key to improving sentiment, while failure to hold current stability may keep volatility elevated.”
Sectoral performance on Friday
The BSE MidCap Select index climbed 0.97 per cent, while SmallCap Select index declined 0.32 per cent.
Among sectoral indices, BSE PSU Bank jumped 2.19 per cent, Focused IT (2.18 per cent), IT (2.08 per cent), healthcare (1.45 per cent), metal (1.41 per cent) and energy (1.03 per cent).
However, financial services, Private Banks index, BSE Top 10 Banks, realty and BSE MidSmall Private Banks Quality Tilt were the laggards.
A total of 2,458 stocks advanced, while 1,804 declined and 170 remained unchanged on the BSE.
On the weekly front, the BSE benchmark dipped 30.96 points or 0.04 per cent, and the Nifty slipped 36.6 points or 0.15 per cent.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 7,558.19 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, bought stocks worth Rs 3,863.96 crore.
On Thursday, the Sensex tanked 2,496.89 points or 3.26 per cent — its biggest single-day plunge since June 2024 — to settle at 74,207.24. The Nifty tumbled 775.65 points, or 3.26 per cent, to end at 23,002.15.
