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Domestic equity benchmark indices witnessed a brutal sell-off on Monday, March 23, declining nearly 3 per cent during the intra-day in tandem with an extremely weak trend in Asian markets due to the increasing tensions in the Middle East, which has entered its fourth week. Besides, rising crude oil prices, relentless foreign fund outflows and weakness in the rupee have also hit investors’ sentiment.
The equity benchmark BSE Sensex is likely to remain under pressure on Wednesday, March 24, as technical indicators continue to signal a dominant bearish trend, even as oversold conditions raise the possibility of a near-term relief bounce.
“The sharp fall was primarily driven by weak global cues, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a surge in crude oil prices, which dampened investor sentiment. Additionally, continued FII selling and weakness in the Indian rupee further added to the negative momentum,” Shah stated.
“Sectorally, the decline was broad-based, with heavy selling seen across banking, financials, IT, and auto stocks. Index heavyweights such as private banks and large-cap leaders dragged the market lower. No major sector managed to stay resilient, indicating widespread risk-off sentiment across the board,” he added.
“The broader markets also mirrored the weakness, with midcap and small-cap indices falling sharply (around 3–4%), underperforming the benchmark and highlighting panic selling and reduced risk appetite among investors,” Shah further stated.
Following the bruising session that saw the BSE Sensex shatter key support levels, Dalal Street is bracing for a high-stakes Tuesday. Market analysts are warning of continued “sell-on-rise” sentiment as the index grapples with a deteriorating technical structure and heightened global volatility.
Sensex Prediction for Tuesday, March 24 by Vipin Dixena
SEBI-registered analyst stated SENSEX shows a sharp breakdown followed by weak consolidation. “Structure remains clearly bearish with lower highs and lower lows, and no meaningful recovery attempt yet,” he noted.
The EMA 50 is trending downward, reinforcing the dominant downtrend. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, suggesting a possible short-term bounce, he suggested.
Key levels to watch on Tuesday
Dixena said as long as the price stays below 72,650, bias remains sell-on-rise. “Only a sustained move above 72,650 can trigger a relief bounce,” he concluded.
Sensex Prediction for Tuesday, March 24 by Aakash Shah
Aakash Shah, technical research analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said, “From a technical perspective, the Sensex has broken below the crucial 74,000–73,500 support zone, indicating a shift towards short-term bearish momentum.”
Key technical levels to watch on Tuesday
He said the immediate support is now placed near the 72,000–72,200 zone, which may act as a demand area in the near term. “On the upside, resistance is seen around the 73,000–73,200 range, and any pullback towards this zone may face selling pressure unless a strong recovery is observed,” Shah added.
“Overall, the market sentiment has turned cautious to negative in the near term, and volatility is expected to remain elevated in upcoming sessions,” the expert concluded.
Rs 48.29 lakh crore eroded
Investors’ wealth has eroded by a whopping Rs 48.29 lakh crore since the start of the West Asia war on February 28, sending shock waves across global markets and driving the BSE Sensex lower by 10.56 per cent.
Since the conflict began, the BSE benchmark Sensex has tumbled 8,590.8 points or 10.56 per cent, and the NSE Nifty lost 2,666 points or 10.58 per cent.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies eroded by Rs 48.29 lakh crore (Rs 48,29,041.45 crore) to Rs 415 lakh crore (Rs 4,15,21,629.82 crore) since then.
The US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on February 28, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
Following the military offensive, Iran has carried out a wave of attacks mainly targeting Israeli and American military bases in several Gulf countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
The war in the Middle East nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the oil and gas-producing Gulf countries to the rest of the world.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped 1.24 per cent to USD 113.6 per barrel.
Sectoral performance on Monday
The BSE MidCap Select index tanked 3.82 per cent, and the SmallCap Select index plunged 3.66 per cent.
All sectoral indices ended lower. Consumer durables tumbled 4.91 per cent, metal (4.76 per cent), realty (4.75 per cent), services (4.70 per cent), BSE PSU Bank (4.39 per cent), MidSmall Private Banks Quality Tilt (4.37 per cent), commodities (4.35 per cent), industrials (4.05 per cent), and capital goods (3.99 per cent).
A total of 3,798 stocks declined, while 635 advanced and 123 remained unchanged on the BSE.
On Monday, the Sensex dived 1,836.57 points or 2.46 per cent to settle at 72,696.39. The Nifty tanked 601.85 points or 2.60 per cent to end at 22,512.65.
