Rupee stays under pressure: What is driving the near-term weakness

Rupee stays under pressure: What is driving the near-term weakness


The rupee opened marginally weaker on Wednesday (August 19), tracking renewed pressure from elevated crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields.

The Indian currency opened at 95.71 per US dollar, compared with Tuesday’s (August 18’s) close of 95.68, marking a decline of 3 paise.

The rupee remains under pressure as a deteriorating global risk backdrop and rising oil prices reinforce its near-term negative bias. Brent crude is nearing $92 a barrel, while higher US Treasury yields are weighing on investor risk appetite.

Oil prices rose for a fourth straight session amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (August 18) that no talks were taking place with Iran and maintained that the strait was open, while Iran said the critical waterway remained closed to shipping.

Higher crude prices are also fuelling inflation concerns and pushing US Treasury yields higher. The 30-year US Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007, adding to pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.

The rupee is facing additional domestic pressure after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) advanced by a month the deadline for its discounted foreign-currency swap facility for deposits raised from non-resident Indians. The move has weighed on near-term sentiment towards the currency.

A currency trader at a private-sector bank said the rupee is facing pressure from multiple fronts, with underlying dollar demand remaining very high. The RBI has been selling dollars in recent sessions to contain the pressure.

State-run banks were seen offering dollars on Wednesday (August 19) morning, which traders said was likely on behalf of the RBI. The central bank’s intervention has helped limit the rupee’s fall and contain volatility, allowing the currency to adjust to the pressure in a more orderly manner.

Traders are now watching whether the RBI steps up intervention around the 95.80-96.00 per dollar zone. For the rupee, the combination of high crude prices, elevated US yields and strong dollar demand remains a key near-term risk.

-With Reuters inputs



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