Citi said Lupin’s US base business is losing momentum, while the company’s pipeline may not be sufficient to offset the decline in key products such as gJynarque and gMyrbetriq.
The brokerage expects Lupin’s US sales to decline from around $1.3 billion in FY26 to $975 million by FY29E. It also sees EBITDA margins narrowing from 30% in Q1FY27 to 20% by FY29E.
While Apixaban could provide support to earnings in FY28E, Citi believes the opportunity may be short-lived.
Longer-term growth could come from products including Neulasta Onpro, Etanercept and Spiriva Respimat, but these programmes have not been filed yet, limiting near-term visibility, the brokerage said.
“Elevated execution risk and limited visibility on replacing current high-margin products” prompted Citi to downgrade the stock, according to its note.
Bernstein remains bullish
In contrast, brokerage firm Bernstein has an ‘Outperform’ rating on Lupin, with a price target of ₹2,707 per share.
Bernstein said Lupin’s favourable judgment on August 24 in the Kalydeco patent trial removes the key barrier to launching its first-to-file ivacaftor programme, which comes with 180 days of exclusivity.The Delaware District Court ruled that Lupin’s formulation did not infringe four Vertex patent claims that were under trial, removing the principal litigation hurdle to the launch, Bernstein said.
Lupin already has tentative US FDA approval for the ivacaftor generic, which is used to treat cystic fibrosis.
Bernstein estimates the product could generate $20-30 million in annual sales for Lupin, equivalent to around 1.4-2.1% of the company’s current annualised US revenue.
Lupin shares ended 1.01% higher at ₹2,197.50 on Wednesday. The stock has declined around 9% so far in 2026.
