Trade Setup for May 15: Nifty crosses one barrier but the next one lies at 23,800

Trade Setup for April 2: Nifty sees a relief rally but 23,000 remains a barrier


The benchmark Nifty 50 extended its recovery for a second consecutive session on Thursday, supported by easing Brent crude prices and renewed buying in the second half of trade.

The index opened 118 points higher but witnessed volatility during the first half, slipping over 160 points from the day’s high amid profit booking. Buying interest returned later in the session, helping the Nifty rebound more than 350 points from the intraday low of 23,426.

The index eventually ended 277 points higher at 23,689.

Despite the rebound, Nifty continues to trade below its key short-term moving averages, indicating that the broader near-term trend remains under pressure.

The inability to decisively reclaim these levels suggests that bullish momentum is yet to fully strengthen.

Among individual stocks, Adani Enterprises, Cipla and Bharti Airtel were the top gainers, while Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies emerged as the key laggards.

Sectorally, Pharma, Healthcare and Metal stocks led the gains, while the IT index was the only sectoral loser, declining 1.99%.

Broader markets delivered a mixed performance. The Nifty Midcap 100 index rose 1.12%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index ended nearly unchanged.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee recovered partially after touching a record low of 95.96 against the US dollar. The currency rebounded on expectations that the government could consider tax relief measures on foreign investment in bond allocations to support capital inflows.

The rupee eventually settled at 95.77 against the dollar, down 6 paise for the day, offering some relief to overall market sentiment.

Going forward, analysts expect the market to remain range-bound in the near term, with stock-specific action continuing to dominate.

Investors are likely to closely monitor developments related to the West Asia conflict, crude oil price movements and foreign institutional investor flows.

While the recent rebound reflects selective buying at lower levels, concerns around inflation, currency weakness and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep sentiment cautious.

Vinay Rajani of HDFC Securities said the Nifty is approaching a crucial resistance zone around 23,800, which coincides with the 20-day DEMA near 23,695.

According to Rajani, a decisive breakout above 23,800 could strengthen the bullish setup and trigger a move towards the next resistance near 24,100, aligned with the 50-day DEMA.

He added that the recent swing low of 23,262 has emerged as immediate support and can act as a stop-loss level for long positions.

Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said the 23,800-23,830 zone is likely to remain a key hurdle for the index.

A sustained breakout above this range could pave the way for a move towards the 24,000 mark, while the 23,580-23,550 zone is expected to offer strong support.

According to Rupak De of LKP Securities, the Nifty rallied sharply but faced resistance near the earlier congestion zone around 23,800, leading to a slightly lower close from the day’s peak.

De said that the index continues to trade below the crucial 20 EMA, indicating that the broader trend still remains weak.

He added that a decisive move above 23,800 could trigger fresh upside momentum towards 24,200 and higher levels, while failure to sustain above that mark may invite renewed selling pressure.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *