Can Nifty 50 hit 26000 by end-2026? Bernstein sees 11% upside; IT, real estate, oil & gas may outperform – EXPLAINED – Markets

Nifty 50 Target 2026: The Indian stock market, already navigating a volatile phase, may find some reassurance in the latest outlook from global brokerage Bernstein, which sees further upside for benchmark indices over the next six months.

Bernstein has projected a target of 26,000 for the Nifty 50 by the end of 2026 while maintaining a “Neutral” stance on Indian equities. The target implies an upside of roughly 2,500 points (upside of about 11 per cent) from the index’s current level, offering investors a glimmer of optimism amid recent market weakness.

The constructive outlook comes at a time when the benchmark index has already corrected more than 10 per cent since January 1, reflecting continued volatility in domestic equities.

Geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment

Investor sentiment has also remained fragile due to rising geopolitical tensions globally. Concerns around the conflict involving the US and Iran have weighed on risk appetite, adding to uncertainty for Indian equities despite relatively resilient domestic macroeconomic fundamentals.

At the same time, the divergence between Indian and US markets has become more pronounced. While Wall Street has continued to scale record highs, driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings, Indian equities have struggled to build sustained momentum and have largely remained range-bound.

Bernstein also noted that India has lost its relative market capitalisation leadership within Asia. Taiwan has overtaken India on that metric, while South Korea continues to narrow the gap, highlighting intensifying competition for global investor flows in the region.

Earnings recovery offers support

Despite these near-term headwinds, Bernstein sees several supportive factors underpinning its positive outlook for Indian equities.

The brokerage said corporate earnings showed signs of recovery in the March 2026 quarter, with earnings growing 16 per cent year-on-year, up from 9 per cent in the previous quarter. More than 53 per cent of companies exceeded analyst estimates, signalling improving business momentum.

While full-year FY26 earnings growth for the Nifty 50 remained modest at around 5-6 per cent, the broader NSE 200 delivered stronger growth of nearly 13 per cent, indicating broader earnings resilience beyond large-cap names.

Looking ahead, Bernstein expects aggregate earnings growth of around 10 per cent in FY27. However, it cautioned that the outlook could be weighed down by weakness in oil marketing companies.

The brokerage also noted that earnings downgrades have resumed, with FY27 estimates cut by nearly 3 per cent so far.

Crude oil remains the KEY market trigger

However, Bernstein believes crude oil remains the single most important variable to watch for Indian markets in the near term, with its trajectory likely to influence equities, corporate earnings and the broader macro environment.

According to the brokerage, a sustained move in crude below USD 90 per barrel could offer meaningful relief by easing pressure on markets, improving fiscal calculations and supporting capex momentum.

Crude prices, however, continue to remain elevated. Brent Crude is trading near USD 94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate remains close to USD 91 per barrel.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money-related decisions.)