NEW DELHI: As the results of the 2026 assembly elections began to emerge, a familiar tune returned to Indian politics. Not loud or unexpected, but recognisable. Something that has been building since the 2024 Lok Sabha verdict. Each election has followed a similar rhythm. The BJP has consistently (from Harayana to Maharashtra and now, Assam) managed to shake off the anti-incumbency, not only defending its government but also winning a greater mandate.What once appeared to be a temporary recovery now carries the shape of something more deliberate.
Across multiple states, the party has defended its ground while pushing into new territory, repeating a pattern with striking consistency. There is a rhythm to it now, almost like the same tune playing again and again, each election result sounds familiar.In Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, there is a line: “Algebra (in this case read: Politics) is like sheet music. It’s not important if you can read the music, it’s can you hear it.”And seemingly, the BJP has.Here’s how the saffron party has cracked the code to fighting anti-incumbency:
The setback
The BJP’s post-2024 trajectory is striking for its method. In June 2024, the party fell to 240 seats in the Lok Sabha, losing its outright majority and becoming dependent on coalition partners. The opposition INDIA bloc interpreted that result as a turning point. It entered subsequent state elections with confidence, often as the perceived frontrunner.Yet that momentum did not translate into votes. In state after state, the opposition struggled to convert narrative advantage into electoral success. The BJP, meanwhile, recalibrated quickly. It refined its messaging, tightened its candidate selection, and leaned heavily on targeted welfare schemes that addressed specific voter segments.Equally important was the party’s ability to maintain coherence across levels of leadership. The central leadership, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, continued to function as a unifying force, while state units adapted to local dynamics. This balance between central projection and local adjustment became a recurring feature of BJP campaigns.
Haryana polls – Proving exit polls wrong
The first indication that the Lok Sabha verdict would not define the BJP’s trajectory came in Haryana. After a decade in power, the state government faced clear signs of fatigue. Exit polls leaned towards the Congress, and the opposition’s campaign had built a sustained narrative around accountability.The BJP’s response was pragmatic rather than defensive. It replaced a significant portion of its sitting legislators and shifted the leadership from Manohar Lal Khattar to Nayab Singh Saini, in a strategic move to circumvent anti-incumbency. The result was a third consecutive term, with 48 seats in a 90-member assembly. The victory was not overwhelming, but it was significant. It demonstrated that anti-incumbency could be mitigated through timely intervention and organisational discipline.
Maharashtra 2024
Maharashtra was an even bigger win for the BJP. The Mahayuti alliance secured a commanding victory, winning 235 of 288 seats. The turnaround from the Lok Sabha elections just months earlier was dramatic.This outcome, however, was not driven by a single factor. Welfare schemes such as Ladki Bahin played a role in consolidating sections of the electorate. At the same time, alliance management proved decisive. The BJP’s campaign combined welfare messaging boosted significantly by PM Modi’s presence. The opposition, despite its earlier parliamentary success, struggled to present a cohesive counter-narrative and suffered from disjointed alliance strategy.
Delhi 2025: Return to the Capital
The Delhi election marked a different kind of shift. The Aam Aadmi Party had built a strong governance narrative over a decade, centred on public services and welfare delivery. However, by 2025, that model showed signs of strain.Controversies, including the liquor policy case involving Arvind Kejriwal, eroded the party’s image of clean governance. Public dissatisfaction, particularly around infrastructure and environmental issues, created openings for the BJP. The BJP’s campaign focused on these vulnerabilities while offering its own welfare commitments. The argument for administrative alignment between the Centre and the state also resonated in a city with a unique constitutional structure.Winning 48 of 70 seats, the BJP returned to power in Delhi after 27 years. The result highlighted a key lesson: even the most entrenched regional players who have built a strong cadre can be toppled.
Bihar 2025: Flexing alliance strength
Bihar’s result reinforced the importance of alliances but also highlighted a shift within them. The NDA secured a decisive victory, with over 200 seats in a 243-member assembly. While Nitish Kumar remained a central figure, the BJP emerged as the single largest party.Then came the transition: BJP’s Samrat Choudhary assumed the chief ministerial post, while Nitish Kumar who had held the top state post for two decades, moved to the Rajya Sabha. This marked a major moment for BJP: the party moved from a supporting role to the centre of power. The campaign itself combined caste recalibration with welfare outreach. The opposition, led by Tejashwi Yadav, ran an energetic campaign but struggled to match the NDA’s organisational reach and coalition stability. It also struggled to form a cohesive alliance strategy with the Congress, with the INDIA bloc allies struggling to formulate a seat-sharing deal till much later in the election season.
Assam 2026: Fighting anti-incumbency
Among the states contested in 2026, Assam was the most straightforward for the BJP. Under Himanta Biswa Sarma, the government entered the election with a relatively strong position.Welfare delivery, particularly targeted at tea garden workers and low-income groups, formed a central pillar of the campaign. This was complemented by a clear ideological positioning that consolidated the party’s support base.The NDA’s comfortable victory, crossing the majority mark with ease, reaffirmed the BJP’s dominance in the state. Assam became the “stick” in the broader pattern, the government that resisted anti-incumbency without significant disruption.
West Bengal 2026: A breakthrough
The most interesting result of this assembly election cycle came in West Bengal. For over a decade, Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress had held firm against the BJP’s advances. The 2021 election had brought the BJP close but not close enough.The years that followed saw a steady expansion of the BJP’s organisational network across the state. At the same time, the TMC faced growing challenges, including localised anti-incumbency, allegations of corruption, and internal strains.The 2026 election reflected these shifts. A high voter turnout signalled a desire for change. The BJP’s campaign combined welfare promises with a strong ideological pitch, while also capitalising on dissatisfaction at the constituency level, flagging issues of anti-incumbency, corruption and law and order degradation.As of time of publishing, the BJP has established a decisive lead, crossing well beyond the majority mark. The result was not just a victory but a breakthrough in a state that had long resisted it.
Getting right what the opposition couldn’t
While the BJP managed anti-incumbency with increasing sophistication, its rivals struggled to do the same. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front lost power after its rare consecutive term, as voters reverted to the state’s pattern of alternation. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK faced a significant setback as the Vijay-led TVK neared an emphatic mandate.These outcomes highlight a broader issue within the opposition. The INDIA bloc’s success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections created expectations that were not matched by organisational coherence in state contests. Leadership remained fragmented, and strategies often relied heavily on national narratives that did not translate effectively at the state level.Anti-incumbency, which had been a powerful tool against the BJP in 2024, turned against these governments. Unlike the BJP, they lacked a consistent framework to manage that pressure.
The emerging playbook
Politics is not a one-off game. It is unrelenting, chaotic, and deliberate. A big win or loss may shift the mood of party workers, but as Shah Rukh Khan would say, “picture abhi baaki hai.” If the state assembly results since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections show anything, it is this: no party is too big to need recalibration, and when it is done right, no setback is too big to recover from.The INDIA bloc walked out of the 2024 Lok Sabha election believing it had found the winning note. It read the result as a shift in mood, a sign that the BJP’s dominance had peaked. But state elections have a way of testing assumptions. One by one, those assumptions have come undone.In Maharashtra, in Delhi, in Bihar, and now most dramatically in West Bengal, the story has repeated with small variations but the same ending.But familiar enough to raise a harder question for the opposition: not how to win one election, but how to stop losing the next one.
