NEW DELHI: With voting now almost over in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry, focus is quietly shifting to the much-awaited exit polls. The exit polls or opinion polls are usually released starting half an hour after polling ends and give an early idea of how people may have voted.Exit polls often shape the first narrative on who could win, but they are not always accurate. In past elections, some have got the overall trend right, while others have been far off the final results.The last round of assembly elections across five states: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal, offers a useful benchmark. Here’s what the assembly polls exit polls for Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal predicted the last time:
Kerala
Exit polls in Kerala correctly anticipated a victory for the Left Democratic Front (LDF), but underestimated its dominance. The average of polls placed the LDF at around 82 seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) was projected to win about 56.The final results, however, showed a much stronger performance by the LDF, which secured 99 seats—17 more than the projection. The UDF, on the other hand, managed only 41 seats, falling short by 15.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were broadly accurate in predicting a win for the DMK-led alliance, though they slightly overestimated its scale. The average projection gave the DMK+ around 166 seats, compared to the actual 159. The AIADMK+ alliance was projected to win about 63 seats but performed better than expected with 75 seats—12 more than predicted. While the overall verdict was correctly forecast, exit polls did not fully capture the resilience of the AIADMK-led bloc.
Assam
Assam stood out as one of the most accurately predicted elections. Exit polls projected the BJP-led NDA to win around 71 seats, while the Congress-led alliance was expected to secure about 54.The final results were remarkably close to these estimates. The NDA won 75 seats, just four more than projected, while the opposition alliance secured 50, only slightly below expectations.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, exit polls correctly predicted an NDA victory but overestimated its seat tally. The average projection gave the NDA around 21 seats, compared to the actual 16.The UPA’s performance matched predictions more closely, winning 9 seats as expected. However, the biggest gap came from independents.
West Bengal
West Bengal was the biggest outlier, with exit polls failing to predict both the scale and clarity of the mandate. The average of polls suggested a competitive race, projecting around 155 seats for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and 126 for the BJP-led NDA.In reality, the TMC secured a sweeping victory with 216 seats—61 more than projected—while the NDA managed just 77 seats, falling short by 49. The Congress-led alliance was expected to win around 12 seats but ended up with just one.Taken together, the five states present a mixed picture of exit poll accuracy. While states like Assam and Tamil Nadu saw reasonably accurate forecasts in terms of overall direction, Kerala and Puducherry revealed gaps in estimating margins and seat shares. West Bengal reflected a clear miss on the mandate.
