He added that partial disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to continue in the near term, affecting oil flows to markets such as India and other Asian economies that depend on the route.
Despite these risks, Chaudhuri said the broader direction remains towards de-escalation. “Nobody really wants to resume the fighting,” he said, noting that economic pressure has become the primary strategy rather than direct military escalation.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
Markets are pricing in a possible easing of tensions as Iran-US talks look set to resume, but risks around oil supply remain. Chaudhuri said the current expectation is that the US is seeking a way out of the conflict.
“US President Donald Trump is definitely looking for an off-ramp… the trend line is towards some kind of settlement,” he said, pointing to a pattern of escalation followed by talks.
However, he noted that negotiations may not be linear and could involve multiple rounds of failed discussions before progress is made. The key issue remains control and access around the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to influence oil markets.
On the nuclear issue, Chaudhuri said it is central to domestic positioning in the US. Enrichment has to be the argument that he makes to his public as to why this war has even happened, he said, adding that a full halt to enrichment is unlikely, making compromise necessary.
Also Read | West Asia Crisis: Iran-US talks 2.0 in focus as Hormuz risks, currency war raise India concerns
On timelines, he said Iran could face storage constraints within days if oil exports remain blocked, which may influence negotiations. However, he added that Iran has buffers, including reserves and alternative trade channels, allowing it to sustain pressure for some time.
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