GMR Airports Share Price: Jefferies sees 36% upside, says Hyderabad tariff outlook remains intact

GMR Airports Share Price: Jefferies sees 36% upside, says Hyderabad tariff outlook remains intact


Shares of GMR Airports are in focus on Wednesday, August 26, after the Airports Economic Regulatory Authority of India (AERA) revised the user development fee (UDF) for passengers departing from Hyderabad’s Rajiv Gandhi International Airport.

GMR Hyderabad international Airport Ltd (GHIAL) operates the airport.

The UDF for domestic passengers departing from the Hyderabad airport has been reduced to ₹515 from the existing ₹750 and is below the GHIAL’s proposed ₹580. Meanwhile, for international passengers departing from the facility, the UDF has been reduced to ₹1,030 from ₹1,500 and compared to GHIAL’s proposal of ₹1,150.

The order, issued on Monday, comes into effect from September 1, 2026, and will be in force till March 31, 2031.

Landing charges for the same have been fixed at ₹435 per MT for domestic flights and ₹630 per MT for international flights.

Domestic passengers account for round 82% of total passenger traffic at the airport. The UDF is applied to both embarking and disembarking passengers as they share terminal facilities, including travelators, aerobridges, conveyor belts, and more.

Jefferies positive

Brokerage firm Jefferies has a “buy” rating on GMR Airports with a target price of ₹135 per share, an upside of 36.3% from its previous close.

It said AERA’s tariff order for the Hyderabad airport is broadly in-line with estimates and flat, higher compared to its FY25-26 levels.

AERA’s new incremental ARR framework defers tariff recovery on large capex until commissioning, it said.

As the Hyderabad airport expands capacity from 34 million to 60 million passengers, the related tariff upside shifts to FY30-31 and will be linked to execution timelines, the brokerage said.

The recovery mechanism remains intact, only the recovery timing changes, it added.

AERA tariff order

AERA rationalized GHIAL’s proposed aggregate revenue requirement (ARR) of ₹27,851 crore for the control period to ₹11,683.49 crore after it conducted prudence checks on operations and maintenance, capital expenditures, rate of return and non-aeronautical revenues under its Tariff Guidelines, 2011. As a result, the baseline yield per passenger is ₹426.39.

The order also introduced an incremental ARR framework, as per which costs for high-value capital expenditure projects, including the Northern Precinct Development and the Northern Runway and Associated Airside Works, will not be included in tariffs from the outset. Instead, the recovery would begin once the assets, which are expected to be completed by around 2029-2030, are ready and have been put to use.

AERA also allowed a variable tariff plan, structured as a landing-charge incentive mechanism, to encourage new airline operators, cargo growth, route development at the airport.

The regulator said its approach is consistent with the one it adopted for the Bengaluru airport last week, when it had revised the tariff framework for the Kempegowda International Airport as well.

Shares of GMR Airports ended hte previous session 0.2% up at ₹99.05 apiece. The stock has declined 8.3% in the past month and is down 6.1% this year, so far.

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