Wood, who was speaking to CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of the Jefferies India Forum 2026, on Thursday, September 17, said that “fixing” US bond yields could weaken the dollar and boost gold, adding that “$10,000 per ounce is feasible”, and this could potentially be a major positive for Indian household wealth.
Gold prices had hit their all-time high of $5,589 per ounce in January this year, and have cooled off ever since. On Thursday, September 17, gold prices declined 0.88% to $4,348.90 an ounce in early trade after the US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and signaled another rate increase could follow later in the year.
He said the market needs to realise, which it will sooner or later, that the US Fed doesn’t have the ability to raise rates significantly and that it will have to suppress bond yields because the fiscal deficit situation is so extreme that the US can’t deal with these higher bond yields because they haven’t got the “political will to cut the entitlements”.
“You’ve already seen the evidence of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent trying to manipulate bond yields at some point between 5% and 6%. My long-standing view is they will fix if the bond market is not succumbing to Bessent’s manipulations and keep selling off.”
Wood said at some point they will have to fix the bond yields and when they do, it would mean that the dollar enters a long-term weakening trend. “That will be fantastic news for emerging market equities and gold,” he said.
Earlier this month, Bessent had sought to ease pressure at the longer end of the yield curve via an expanded bond buyback programme.
Wood said the dollar entering a long-term weakening trend would be extremely positive for India in terms of the huge gold held by Indian households, which has begun to be monetised by the booming gold lending market in the country. “So gold at $10,000 per ounce, which is entirely feasible in such an environment, as I highlighted, would massively monetise Indian household balance sheets,” he said.He added that that in such an outcome, there is also a another potential manipulation, or rather “creative accounting”, open to the US authorities. “They could revalue the US gold reserves which are currently I think valued at $32 or $42 per ounce. They could use some of the proceeds from that revaluation buy back the US Treasury debt,” he said.
However, the same depends on the US Federal Reserve’s approach towards its monetary policy in the next couple of years.
“If US Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh really tightens the monetary policy, really proceeds with a tightening cycle and he really shrinks the Fed balance sheet in a material significant manner then I will be wrong,” Wood said.
He said tightening the policy would result in a strong dollar, which will result in a big rally in the bond market, which in turn will result in gold prices going down and all sorts of negative consequences in the US stock market. “Frankly, I won’t believe that is happening until I see it because that will hurt a lot of powerful vested interests. I find that hard to believe,” he added.
Also Read: Gold at $10,000, AI ‘implosion’: A look at Chris Wood’s big calls on India and global markets
