Kedia expects gold to rebound after any near-term correction, while crude oil prices could gradually ease towards $60-$65 per barrel over the coming quarters if supply continues to outpace demand.
Kedia also expects strength in industrial metals, with zinc and copper likely to outperform aluminium during July, supported by improving demand trends and supply constraints. He believes investors should monitor the US Federal Reserve’s policy signals, the dollar index and global manufacturing activity for further direction.
Kedia said gold continues to trade with a constructive outlook despite resistance around $4,200 an ounce.
He expects any decline towards the $4,100-$4,120 per ounce range to offer a buying opportunity before prices rebound towards $4,250 per ounce, supported by easing inflation expectations and reduced odds of a US interest rate hike.
Silver could outperform gold
Kedia expects silver to outperform gold after the gold-silver ratio reversed from recent highs.
He expects silver to test $64 per ounce initially and potentially reach $68 per ounce during July, supported by improving industrial demand.
Zinc and copper remain preferred metals
Among base metals, Kedia said zinc remains his preferred pick after a decline in the global surplus and improving technical indicators.
He expects zinc to move towards ₹390-395 per kilogram during July, provided prices remain above key support levels.
Kedia is also constructive on copper, citing lower mine output from Chile and stable global manufacturing activity.
“Output in Chile has fallen by 12.9% year on year, which is going to be great support for copper,” he said.
He expects domestic copper prices to target ₹1,320 per kilogram during July, while aluminium is likely to remain range-bound as supply conditions improve.
Crude oil to remain under pressure
On crude oil, Kedia said increasing OPEC production and weaker demand expectations point to a softer price environment.
He expects Brent crude to trade in the $70-$76 per barrel range during July before gradually declining later this year.
“Overall, we are oversupplied as compared to demand,” he said.
According to Kedia, crude prices could fall towards $60-$65 per barrel over the next few quarters unless fresh geopolitical disruptions, such as developments involving Russia and Ukraine, significantly alter the supply outlook.
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