Gold could hit $2,600, test record highs this year: Metals Focus MD

Gold and silver prices are set to extend their gains through the rest of the year and into the next, according to Philip Newman, Managing Director at Metals Focus, a London-based precious metals research firm. He said Metals Focus expects gold to reach the $2,600 per ounce level by the end of this year, with the possibility of testing or briefly exceeding the record highs seen in January.

The forecast comes as gold has held firm near $2,500 an ounce through August. Newman pointed to weaker US economic data as a central driver, saying markets have scaled back their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase this year.

He also flagged the return of tariff tensions between the US and Canada and uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections as factors likely to pressure the dollar and, in turn, support gold.

Newman was even more bullish on silver, which has pulled back sharply from a high near $32 an ounce. “We’re calling at Metals Focus for a high, say around $90 per ounce before the end of 26,” he said, adding that a move into triple digits is a real possibility for 2027, though not the firm’s base case. “Do we think that it will hit the $120 per ounce level? Perhaps not, but… once silver does strengthen, and if trading gets a little bit thin, then it is a possibility.”

Central bank purchases and exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying have been the two main pillars behind gold’s rally over the past eight to twelve months. Newman said the trend should continue. “We had a relatively quiet first quarter to this year, but that was followed by an exceptionally strong second quarter in terms of those net central bank purchases,” he said.

He does not expect this year’s total to top the past three years, which he called exceptionally high, but still anticipates another year of strong demand. On ETFs, Newman said recent buying has been soft but expects it to return in force again in the coming months, supported by the firm’s price outlook for next year.

Newman was visiting after attending the India Gold Conference in Goa; he described festival demand as cautiously optimistic. He noted that price volatility remains a headwind for buyers, but that a decent monsoon season, as relayed by his Mumbai-based colleagues, has helped sentiment.He also pointed to a broader shift in how Indian consumers are buying gold: smaller, lighter pieces and slightly lower purity jewellery, a pattern he said is showing up not just in India but across South and East Asia, as buyers try to keep purchases within budget even as the value of gold rises.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video