The brokerage has a price target of ₹110 per share on the stock, which implies an upside of around 5% from IEX’s previous closing price of ₹104.75.
Bernstein said market coupling appears inevitable but is already largely priced into the stock. However, the brokerage expects implementation timelines to be pushed out by around a year, potentially to the end of FY28, citing legal and operational challenges.
IEX is likely to challenge the final market-coupling regulations as well, while implementation faces hurdles including cross-exchange clearing, software alignment across exchanges and Grid India’s limited experience with price discovery, Bernstein said.
The brokerage expects the regulator to proceed with market coupling rather than roll back the process, but believes the implementation could take longer, particularly for the real-time market (RTM), given plans to further reduce the RTM trading window.
Bernstein also flagged the potential revision of IEX’s transaction charges as a significant longer-term risk. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) had indicated in 2023 that a discussion paper on transaction charges would be prepared based on global benchmarks and the risks associated with the business.
However, Bernstein believes the near-term risk from any regulatory action on transaction charges is limited, as the regulator may wait for market coupling to be implemented before taking a decision.
On volumes, the brokerage expects near-term growth to remain subdued, with supply rather than demand emerging as the key constraint. Strong power demand, weaker hydro generation and coal shortages could limit IEX’s volume growth over the next few months.Bernstein, however, expects power exchange volumes to grow faster than overall power demand over the medium to long term, helped by the government’s push towards more market-based power products, including virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs).
The brokerage said IEX’s current valuation fairly reflects its base-case expectations of lower transaction charges and eventual market-share loss following market coupling.
Out of the 13 analysts covering IEX, five have a ‘Buy’ rating, while four each have a ‘Hold’ and ‘Sell’ recommendation.
Shares of IEX ended 0.43% higher at ₹104.75 on Tuesday. The stock is down around 22% so far in 2026.