NEW DELHI: The INDIA bloc hit the “reset” button this week with a five-point truce plan. The opposition alliance met after a gap of two years to recalibrate their anti-BJP strategy. There was some hard talk, some emotional hugs, and a lot of reconciliation to keep the alliance intact and relevant in the face of an existential crisis precipitated by recent electoral defeats.So far, so good.But the question is: Will this reset ensure lasting opposition unity? Did the allies address the fault lines that divide them?Well, the answer is “No”.Let’s first understand the genesis of the INDIA bloc. The opposition alliance was born with the sole motive of stopping the BJP’s march in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by keeping the anti-NDA votes intact. Clearly, it was an alliance formed to counter the BJP at the national level without considering the challenges and contradictions at the state level. Little wonder its Lok Sabha cheers were short-lived.The INDIA bloc did prevent the BJP from crossing the majority mark in Lok Sabha, something the saffron party had achieved in 2014 and 2019 elections. But as the electoral contests entered the states, this national opposition alliance collapsed like a house of cards. The allies at the national level became fierce political rivals in states.
So, when the electorally bruised allies met in the national capital on June 8, they needed to address this fault line more than anything else. But the 25 parties that joined the unity huddle did not focus on finding ways for better coordination at the state level.
How political rivalry between allies in key states became the nemesis of INDIA bloc
Congress vs Samajwadi Party in Madhya PradeshIronically, the first tussle over seat sharing surfaced during the assembly elections in 2023 even as the INDIA bloc allies were finalising details of their national anti-BJP alliance. The Congress then refused to give seats to Samajwadi Party which led to an angry Akhilesh Yadav openly targeting the grand-old-party. The INDIA bloc collapsed in Madhya Pradesh and the two allies fought against each other. This open tussle could have impacted the alliance in Uttar Pradesh where SP was the main player. However, according to reports, it was timely intervention by Priyanka Gandhi that eventually led to a truce.Congress vs AAP in Haryana and DelhiThe Congress and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party shared a blow hot and cold relationship from the Day 1 of the alliance. The two parties contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together in Delhi, but failed to win any of the 7 seats. And then started a game of open war of words between the two allies. While AAP, the dominant partner in Delhi, refused to align with the Congress for assembly elections in the national capital, the grand-old-party returned fire in Haryana where they snubbed Kejriwal’s party. The AAP eventually walked out of the opposition alliance and has targeted the Congress at every opportunity.
One of the reasons why AAP will not return to the INDIA fold for now is the upcoming assembly elections in Punjab where Kejriwal’s party is in power and the Congress is the main rival. Already, the AAP vs Congress rivalry is playing out in the state.Another emerging fault line is Gujarat and Goa, where the AAP has been trying to position itself as the main opposition force. That ambition does not naturally suit the Congress, which still sees itself as the principal challenger to the BJP in both states.With assembly elections in Gujarat and Goa due in 2027, the competition for opposition space could become another source of friction between the two parties.Congress vs TMC in West BengalNow, let’s discuss Mamata Banerjee, the Trinamool Congress chief and the former chief minister of West Bengal. The recent assembly elections left her battered and bruised. Mamata not just lost power in West Bengal, she is on the verge of losing control over her party. If that eventually happens, Mamata will be joining the likes of Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, who faced similar fate in Maharashtra.The latest meeting of the INDIA bloc was reportedly called at the behest of Mamata after her poll drubbing. Now, when you compare this to Mamata’s stand on the opposition alliance when her dominance was at its peak in West Bengal, you can’t miss the irony. When Mamata was ruling West Bengal, she refused to cede even an inch of extra ground to the Congress and refused to consider any alliance with the grand-old-party. However, that has now changed. Mamata now desperately needs the support of INDIA bloc alliance to take her fight forward against the BJPCongress vs Left in KeralaLet’s move to the south. In Kerala, the Congress and the Left have been political rivals for years. However, ignoring this ground rivalry, the two parties joined hands at the national level under the INDIA banner in 2023. But in the run up to assembly elections earlier this year, the two parties targeted each other with vengeance like never before.And this rivalry in the state elections has now become a bone of contention in their coordination under the INDIA banner. The CPM is attacking Rahul for unleashing a no-holds barred attack against its leader and former chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan.
Congress: A ‘glue’ that fails to bind
Ironically, it is the Congress, which was referred to by National Conference leader and J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah as the glue that binds together the opposition coalition, is at the centre of all political differences within the opposition coalition.The Congress’s competing relationship with the regional allies in the states has been the major reason for differences between the INDIA bloc allies. And this rivalry will not end till the INDIA bloc partners find a mutually satisfactory formula that recognises the political rivalry in the states as a part of their relationship dynamics.However, the 5-point truce plan talks nothing about tackling this inherent problem. While the state elections since 2024 have gradually tilted the balance of power within the INDIA bloc in favour of the Congress, the leaders of the grand-old-party realize that this gain holds little value while the entire opposition space is gradually being usurped by the BJP.Mamata, Kejriwal and MK Stalin of the DMK in Tamil Nadu – the three biggest regional satraps in the opposition alliance have all lost elections in their strongholds and perhaps realize that their clout in the INDIA bloc has diminished.The AAP is no longer in the alliance and the DMK just walked out miffed with what it called Congress’s betrayal in the state as the grand-old-party dumped its ally for a new friend Vijay’s TVK which provided it an opportunity to return to state government after nearly six decades.
Uttar Pradesh next
The next battlefield for the INDIA bloc will likely be Uttar Pradesh, where Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and the Congress are the main players in the opposition space. They contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in alliance with great success pushing the BJP on the backfoot. But as they gear up for the assembly elections in the state next year, seat sharing may once again bring out their differences in the open.Interestingly, in the Delhi meeting – Akhilesh reportedly said that the Congress party should “show a big heart” and back the strongest anti-BJP force in individual states.This is a clear message from Samajwadi Party, which is the dominant partner in the state, that it will want to dictate terms in the assembly elections even as the Congress will continue to fight for its space. It will be interesting to see how the two parties can find the middle ground when they start negotiating seat sharing.
What next
Clearly, the INDIA bloc cannot become a cohesive group without finding a solution to solve the differences between the allies in the states. Mamata has realized this after losing everything in West Bengal. The AAP may also learn it the hard way. It has already lost Delhi to BJP after the Congress made the electoral battle in the state a three-way contest. If Kerjiwal’s party loses Punjab in another three-way contest involving Congress, it may be left without a government in any state, like Mamata Banerjee. Already, AAP has lost most of its Rajya Sabha members to the BJP in an indication of what the future may hold for the party.If the members of the INDIA bloc do not play their cards well, they could end up ceding more political space to the BJP in the future. Any truce plan to keep the parties together will not succeed till it addresses the fundamental fault line of rivalry in the states within the opposition alliance. The Congress now has an upper hand in the alliance and has also shown the willingness to be flexible. But will it be ready to compromise on seats? Well, we will have to wait and see.
