The proposed India-US trade agreement could be finalised within weeks, but the final outcome will depend on the tariff concessions and long-term trade certainty that Washington offers New Delhi, according to Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Practice Head for South Asia at Eurasia Group.
Speaking after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the agreement was a matter of weeks, not months, both experts said investors and exporters should closely watch the final terms of the deal rather than the timeline. They also said energy cooperation, including Venezuelan crude supplies and refinery investments, could become an important pillar of broader India-US economic ties.
“We don’t know what the US is going to offer us. We know what we are going to offer them because we have signed that February joint statement,” Srivastava said. He added that the biggest issue is whether Indian exports will receive lower tariff rates after the agreement.
Srivastava said the current tariff structure remains uncertain across several product categories. While sectors such as pharmaceuticals and smartphones already enjoy exemptions, labour-intensive exports including garments, textiles and leather continue to face higher duties.
“For example, today our shirts going to the US pay 22% tariff. After the trade deal, will this be 22% or less?” he said.
He added that exporters would also seek protection against future tariff increases, noting that the US had imposed additional duties on some countries even after signing trade agreements with them.
“We need certainty that once we sign a trade deal, there should be no future increase in tariffs,” Srivastava said. He added that India should proceed only if the agreement remains balanced for both countries.
Pramit Pal Chaudhuri said energy cooperation could strengthen the broader strategic relationship between India and the US.
“Venezuelan oil is effectively treated as American oil geopolitically today,” Chaudhuri said. He explained that Venezuelan heavy crude is well suited for producing diesel, and increasing supplies to India could help boost global diesel availability while reducing dependence on Russian oil.
According to Chaudhuri, higher diesel production would not necessarily be directed to the United States but could ease global fuel prices by increasing overall supply.
“The more diesel that’s in the international market, the lower the price is globally,” he said, adding that lower diesel prices are politically important in the US as they affect transport operators, farmers and small businesses.
Chaudhuri also said Venezuela could once again account for nearly 10% of India’s crude imports as production rises, compared with around 5% currently. He believes that expanding energy ties, alongside progress on the trade agreement, could provide a stronger economic foundation for India-US relations.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
India-US trade deal near, but US tariff offer remains the biggest question: Trade experts
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