Global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23% from around 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2025 to nearly 383 mboe/d by 2050.
Almost all of this growth is expected to come from developing economies, led by India, Other Asia, the West Asia, Africa and Latin America, while demand in developed economies is projected to remain largely flat or decline.
India alone is expected to add 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil demand between 2025 and 2050, making it the largest source of incremental demand globally.
Long-term oil demand by region, mb/d
| Region | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 | Growth 2025–2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD | 45.9 | 46.7 | 45.9 | 43.6 | 40.8 | 38.0 | -7.9 |
| China | 16.9 | 18.1 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 18.4 | 18.0 | 1.1 |
| India | 5.6 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 13.8 | 8.1 |
| Middle East | 8.9 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 13.6 | 4.7 |
| Russia | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
Other major contributors include Other Asia, the Middle East and Africa, which are projected to add 5.3 mb/d, 4.7 mb/d and 4.3 mb/d, respectively. Latin America is expected to contribute 2.8 mb/d, while China’s oil demand growth is projected at 1.1 mb/d over the same period.
Globally, oil demand is forecast to rise from current levels to 113.3 mb/d by 2030 and further to 124.1 mb/d by 2050, representing an increase of about 19 mb/d over the outlook period.
The growth is expected to be driven primarily by non-OECD economies, while demand in OECD countries is projected to decline in the longer term after a modest increase by 2030.
Despite the rapid growth of renewable energy, oil is expected to remain the largest source in the global energy mix through 2050, accounting for just under 30% of total demand. Combined, oil and natural gas are projected to make up around 54% of the energy mix by mid-century.
Coal demand projected to fall amid energy transition
OPEC reports said that demand for all primary energy sources is expected to increase over the forecast period except coal. Renewable energy, including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and other sources, is projected to record the largest increase, growing by 51.3 mboe/d by 2050.
Solar and wind are expected to account for most of this expansion, supported by declining generation costs and policy support, although grid constraints and rising integration costs remain challenges.
Natural gas demand is forecast to increase by 19.3 mboe/d by 2050, while oil demand rises by 18.6 mboe/d. Nuclear energy is also expected to register significant growth, increasing by 10.5 mboe/d after a prolonged period of stagnation.
In contrast, coal demand is projected to decline by 29.3 mboe/d due to policy measures and substitution by other fuels, particularly in power generation.
The share of renewables in the global energy mix is expected to increase to around 26% by 2050 from about 15% in 2025. However, the outlook suggests that renewable growth will supplement rather than replace fossil fuels, with overall energy demand continuing to expand.
Electricity demand set for sharp rise
Electricity generation is forecast to rise by more than 85%, increasing from about 32,000 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025 to around 59,500 TWh by 2050. Around 75% of this growth is expected to come from developing countries, with nearly 60% originating from developing economies in Asia.
Demand from residential and commercial users, industry, transport and data centres is expected to drive this expansion.
Wind and solar power are projected to account for the largest increase in electricity generation, rising from around 5,400 TWh in 2025 to approximately 26,000 TWh by 2050.
The outlook also projects substantial growth in transportation demand. The global vehicle fleet is expected to expand from 1.75 billion vehicles in 2025 to nearly 3 billion by 2050.
While electric vehicles are projected to be the fastest-growing segment, internal combustion engine vehicles are still expected to account for around 73% of the global fleet by 2050.
Reflecting rising demand, the report highlighted that global oil trade is projected to increase from 55 mb/d in 2025 to around 69 mb/d by 2050. Trade volumes are expected to rise steadily through 2040 before growth moderates in the final decade as refinery capacity expands in developing economies and overall oil demand growth slows.
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