Speaking about reports that India is in discussions with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to export BrahMos and Akash missile systems, Gupta said the opportunity extends far beyond a single order. She believes a successful deal could strengthen India’s position as a global defence exporter and create opportunities across the Gulf region.
“I think the opportunities is much larger than just the United GCC countries. Europe is also a big partner in terms of defence exports,” Gupta said.
She estimates that defence exports, currently around ₹38,000 crore, could rise to ₹75,000-80,000 crore by FY30. While she does not expect exports to reach ₹1 lakh crore by then, she believes the industry is on track for strong growth.
According to Gupta, the significance of a potential BrahMos deal lies not only in its value but also in what it represents for India’s defence manufacturing capabilities.
“This Brahmos opportunity is just not about selling a missile system, it is about exporting India’s technological capability, strengthening strategic partnerships and creating a globally competitive defence manufacturing system,” she said.
Gupta noted that the Middle East remains one of the world’s largest defence-spending regions. A successful deal with the UAE could help Indian defence companies secure additional contracts across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Bharat Dynamics
for a wide range of products and systems.
The benefits would not be limited to missile manufacturers. Gupta expects companies across the defence ecosystem to gain, including Bharat Electronics (BDL), Data Patterns (India) (BEL), Astra Microwave Products and BEML, which supply critical systems such as radars, electronics and defence equipment.
She also sees a growing role for private companies in India’s defence industry. Private-sector participation currently stands at around 24% and could rise to nearly 30% by FY30 as more companies enter areas such as electronic warfare, defence systems and advanced technologies.
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While Gupta remains positive on the sector’s long-term prospects, she cautioned that valuations have already risen sharply after the recent rally in defence stocks. Future returns, she said, will depend on companies delivering strong earnings growth and executing on their order books.
Among listed defence companies, Gupta’s preferred picks are BEL and BEML, which she believes are well placed to benefit from India’s expanding defence manufacturing and export ambitions.
“I think the earnings would decide the valuations going forward,” she said.
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